Rafael Nadal continues to defy father time, becoming the fourth-oldest man to reach a major final in the Open era. His path to a 21st major now meets a major obstacle: Daniil Medvedev’s style is proving incredibly difficult to beat on hard courts and the Russian is heavily favored to win a second major crown.
Covers Experts’ resident tennis handicapper Tennis Insiders breaks down the finalists and matchup with our Australian Open men's final picks.
Rafael Nadal vs Daniil Medvedev odds
| (6) Rafael Nadal | (2) Daniil Medvedev | |
|---|---|---|
| +170 | Moneyline | -200 |
| +3.5 (-125) | Match Handicap (Games) | -3.5 (-110) |
| 2.5 (Over -120/Under -120) | Total Breaks of Serve | 3.5 (Over -120/Under -120) |
Odds courtesy of bet365 as of January 28, 2022.
Australian Open men's final betting preview
Rafael Nadal betting breakdown
Nadal hasn’t played his best tennis but has found ways to win. His quarterfinal against Denis Shapovalov was a perfect example of him being on the ropes and his opponent failing to capitalise.
He won his semi-final against Matteo Berrettini in comfortable fashion, mostly due to his opponent’s slew of unforced errors and Nadal consistently exploiting his backhand.
This will be Nadal’s sixth final in Melbourne, but he only has one title — hard courts haven’t been his strength in recent years, but he’s 9-0 to start 2022, winning the title in Sydney, and despite dropping sets against Khachanov, Shapovalov & Berrettini, he’ll prove a difficult out in Sunday’s final.
Daniil Medvedev betting breakdown
It hasn’t been a straightforward road to the finals for Daniil Medvedev. After four sets required against Nick Kyrgios, he complained about Maxime Cressy’s serve & volley style in a match that also needed four sets, came back from two sets to love down to beat Felix Auger Aliassime in the quarterfinals and took down Stefanos Tsitsipas in four sets in the semis.
Medvedev’s ability to mix elite counterpunching along with an amazing serve gives him a huge edge on hard courts. His ability to sit deep on the return and neutralise his opponents’ serves makes him so difficult to beat in these conditions. Only Stan Wawrinka, Nadal, Dominic Thiem & Novak Djokovic have managed to do so in the last six hard-court majors.
Australian Open men's final matchup preview
The head-to-head is 3-1 in favor of Nadal, but there are caveats. These two haven’t played since November 2020 when Medvedev was victorious, Medvedev also led 5-1 in the deciding set at the ATP World Tour Finals in 2019 before a huge choke, and the 2019 US Open Final went five sets.
It's fair to say Medvedev is a much better player now while Nadal’s weaknesses on hard courts haven’t disappeared. Unlike 2019, Medvedev now has experience: This will be his fourth major final, and he has beaten Nadal since then and has crucially got over the line in a slam final.
This will be a night match, so the ball will be bouncing lower. This doesn’t help Nadal, who prefers the balls spitting up higher. Medvedev’s also had problems hitting through the court at times in these extremely slow conditions, so there will be positives and negatives for both.
Medvedev’s serve is stronger now, but his return position, which was exploited by Nadal in the 2019 final, remains deep and vulnerable to serve/volley tactics, executed most recently by Djokovic in the Paris Masters Final.
Australian Open men's final pick
- Exactly 4 sets (+162 at bet365)
