US Open Women's Semifinal Odds & Predictions: Pegula Gets the Best of Muchova

At long last, Jessica Pegula has made it into her first-ever Grand Slam semifinal. And to make matters sweeter, it’s come here at the US Open, where she’ll now have the opportunity to lean on a raucous home crowd like we saw Coco Gauff do a season ago.

She’ll contest the second semi of the evening against Karolina Muchova, who’s backed up her semifinal run at last year’s US Open with another impressive performance in New York.

Will she once again fall victim to another top-ranked American, or might she turn this one around in her favor? Let’s take a look at the US Open odds and break it all down in my Pegula vs. Muchova predictions for September 5.

Jessica Pegula vs Karolina Muchova prediction and best bet

• My match prediction
  Pegula ML (-160 at BetMGM)
  
  
• My best bet
  Under 6.5 aces (-161 at BetMGM)

Match analysis

We were robbed of seeing this matchup for the first time when Muchova was forced to pull out of Dubai last year with yet another injury. Still, the two finally took the court a few weeks ago in Cincinnati where Pegula emerged the victor in three sets to reach the third round of the 1000-level event.

Pegula conjured up 10 break points in the last two sets — converting five times — and after winning 71% of points behind her first serve in the first set, that number would plummet as the match wore on.

This is looked at as a letdown spot for many after the American took out Iga Swiatek on Wednesday, but considering she’s a Top 10 player who’s beaten the World No. 1 before, I’m not quite sure we’ll see the same kind of emotional swing.

Pegula should draw plenty of confidence from her win over Muchova last month and will be the readier of the two women, having come through the tougher of the two draws.

So, the win over the World No. 1 just highlighted how dominant Pegula has been at this tournament — particularly on return — and against a weaker server in Muchova, she should get the better of the two.

I’d also point out Muchova seemed overcome by the moment last year in the semifinals against Gauff, falling behind 5-1 in the first set as the crowd grew louder and louder in support of the eventual US Open champion. She never quite recovered, either, and if not for a nervous Gauff who was in uncharted waters, the match would have been one-way traffic.

I like Pegula to back up her win.

Best best analysis

Both players have done a decent enough job of earning free points on their first serves throughout the tournament, averaging roughly four aces per match apiece. Given neither one has been pushed to three sets, you could argue those numbers should be even higher, but I think the numbers against each of these brilliant returners are worth more consideration.

Pegula is an excellent counter-puncher, and with her deep return position and anticipation, she’s limited her opponents to just four total aces through five matches. Muchova, a very coordinated opponent with good reactions in her own right, has held her opponents to just four aces in four matches — other than yielding six to the powerful Naomi Osaka.

Osaka is one of the biggest hitters on tour, and neither of these two women fit the bill of the former US Open champion. Pegula sits outside the Top 30 in ace percentage this season at just 4%, while Muchova has recorded one in just 4.5% of points — which would rank just a couple of spots ahead of Pegula had she played enough matches to qualify.

We may be in a bit of danger if this match goes the full three sets, but I feel pretty comfortable grabbing this line, considering Pegula’s quarterfinal win over Swiatek featured no aces while Muchova saw just two hits in the match.

What’s an even bigger deal is both matches saw both players land a great deal of first serves. It’s also worth noting in their three-set match in Cincinnati, there were just five aces hit on a much quicker surface than the one they’ll play on tonight.Pegula vs Muchova odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on 9-5.

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