Taylor Fritz and Frances Tiafoe bucked the US Open odds and have become the first Americans since 2009 to reach the US Open semifinals.
Fritz is the heavy favorite to get past his Team USA rival, but Tiafoe will have the massive Arthur Ashe Stadium crowd on his side when the two meet on Friday.
Read on for why I expect Fritz to be the last American man standing on September 6.
US Open Men's Semifinal picks and predictions
Click on each prediction to read full analysis.
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Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe odds
| (12) Taylor Fritz | (20) Frances Tiafoe | |
|---|---|---|
| -275 | Moneyline | +210 |
| -4.5 (+100) | Game spread | +4.5 (-125) |
| Over 40.5 (-120) | Total games | Under 40.5 (-110) |
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of 9/5.
Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe match prediction
There will be an American man in the U.S. Open finals for the first time since 2009.
It took 33 Grand Slam appearances before Fritz broke through to his first GS semi with a solid, four-set victory over heavily-favored Alexander Zverev. Fritz confidently cracked his big serve and monster forehand alongside an improving return game to power through.
It’s the same strategy Fritz has successfully deployed to beat Tiafoe in their past six clashes: crack the big serve, snap the big cross-court forehand, take control of as many points as possible, and send Big Foe packing.
Tiafoe is a fan favorite with a big game of his own. His serve can be a weapon, and his forehand and cleverly placed droppers seem to come alive in NYC. He’s been aided by a couple of early retirements and has barely been tested during his run, but Fritz is far and away the best player he’s faced.
Tiafoe is the better mover, but Fritz is better at everything else. Big Foe can’t chase Fritz away with his forehand like he does to most, and the Fritz serve is too consistent and too big for Tiafoe to deal with. Big Foe will have the crowd on his side, but Fritz and his monster surf and turf game will prevail in the end.
Prediction: Taylor Fritz moneyline (-250 at bet365)
Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe best bet
While both are aggressive, Fritz is the more consistent of the two from both wings. Tiafoe likes challenging players with his forehand, and while he may win a few fearhand-to-fearhand battles, he won’t win the war because Fritz is better at it and hits bigger from both wings than he does.
Tiafoe is an emotional player who relies on the crowd, and his mobility leads to some fantastic shots that make the crowd go wild. We’ve seen Tiafoe land a big one and watch him ride the crowd. He could steal a set from Fritz, and we want to avoid this.
I'm laying the –3.5 games. Fritz has the game to run straight through his opponent and has for each of their last six battles. He’s also beaten Tiafoe by four games or more in three of their last four meetings, and his return game is crisp enough that even if he does drop a set, he'll still cover the –3.5 games.
Best bet: Taylor Fritz -3.5 (-125 at Caesars)
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