UFC 298 Neal vs Garry Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Garry Puts "Handz of Steel" to Work

Geoff Neal vs. Ian Machado Garry is on the main card for tonight's UFC 298 betting on February 17.

This should be a banger between a pair of Top-10 welterweights who prefer to strike. They were originally scheduled to fight last summer before Neal withdrew, but there's still bad blood after Garry promoted that bout by wearing a t-shirt featuring Neal's mugshot from a DUI.

The brash young Garry is expected to win with UFC odds installing him as a -225 favorite and Neal coming back at +185. Here are my best free Neal vs. Garry picks and predictions for UFC 298.

Geoff Neal vs Ian Garry fight odds

Method of Victory	Neal	Garry
To win outright	+185	-240
To win by KO/TKO	+315	+280
To win by points	+875	+155
To win by submission	+2,400	+600
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds courtesy of Bet99 on February 17, 2024.

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Neal vs Garry picks

Fight prediction: Ian Garry ML

Ian Garry is a black belt in Judo but he seldom tries to implement his offensive wrestling, and that combined with Neal's strong takedown defense means this bout will likely stay standing up.

When it comes to striking there is one significant advantage that Garry has: his ability to strike at every distance. While Neal thrives in the pocket where he can get close and deal damage, we've seen him struggle at range in losses vs. Neil Magny and Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson. 

Let's not forget that Neal could easily be just 1-4 in his last five fights were he not given a close split decision against Santiago Ponzinibbio. Sure, he had an impressive knockout victory against Vicente Luque in 2022, but Luque didn't move his head off the center line while Garry has better lateral movement.

Garry does an excellent job of using his 6-foot-3 frame and looks just as fluid in close as he is at intermediate and long range. He should be able to get the win here but I'm reluctant to back him at this moneyline number, especially since he's been dropped by Song Kenan and Mateusz Figlak. Look elsewhere for betting value in this bout. 

Prediction: Ian Garry moneyline (-225 at Bet99)

Fight best bet: Fight to go Over 2.5 rounds

Garry racked up highlight reel knockouts at Cage Warriors, but he's found it harder to finish opponents at the higher level of competition in the UFC. Although he pieced up Neil Magny in his last bout he went the distance for the third time in his last five fights. Another one of those bouts didn't end until the final minute of the third round when he finally knocked out Song Kenan.

Now he faces the durable Geoff Neal who has only been knocked out once in his career with that coming all the way back in 2017 when he fought Kevin Holland on the regional circuit.

Like Garry, four of Neal's previous five fights went past the midway point of Round 3. Neal was finished in his last bout by Shavkat Rakhmonov but that came by submission with just 43 seconds remaining in the final round.

The fact that he was able to survive (and stay competitive) for so long as a +400 underdog against Rakhmonov who has a 100% finish rate was impressive. Although we should get a striking battle, I'm still expecting this bout to go Over 2.5 rounds. 

Pick: Over 2.5 rounds (-125 at Bet99)

Neal vs Garry betting preview

Geoff "Handz of Steel" Neal is the No. 8-ranked welterweight contender despite losing three of his last five fights. In his last time out, he was submitted by Rakhmonov in the third round but still managed to earn a Fight of the Night bonus.

Neal is 8-3 in the octagon with six of those victories coming inside the distance. The 33-year-old is a pressure fighter with explosive power in his hands and legs.

When Neal withdrew from his fight against Garry last August, he was replaced by Neil Magny who was soundly defeated. Garry was unable to finish the crafty veteran but easily took the decision with lopsided scores of 30-26, 30-26, and 30-24.

That was the sixth consecutive win in the UFC for Garry, who has now compiled a perfect 13-0 record in his MMA career. The 26-year-old Irishman was the former Cage Warriors welterweight champion and he's looking to challenge for the UFC title in the near future.

While his cocky attitude can rub people the wrong way, "The Future" has the skills to back up his trash talk. He's a high-volume kickboxer who averages 6.67 significant strikes per minute and has plenty of tools in his striking arsenal.

Geoff Neal vs Ian Garry tale of the tape

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