UFC 303 is taking place at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas tonight, with the main event being a title rematch at light heavyweight between Alex Pereira and Jiri Prochazka, as well as excellent undercard bouts featuring Ian Garry vs. Michael Page and Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes.
New blood and capable veterans are on the loaded preliminary card, and there are three bouts that you’ll want to keep an eye on in the latest UFC odds.
Here are my best free UFC 303 preliminary picks and predictions for June 29.
UFC 303 prelim picks and predictions
Andrei Arlovski vs. Martin Buday
• Prediction: Buday moneyline (-245 at Bet99)
• Best Bet: Buday by decision (+180 at Bet99)
Michelle Waterson-Gomez vs. Jillian Robertson
• Prediction: Robertson moneyline (-190 at Bet99)
• Best Bet: Robertson by points or submission (-130 at Bet99)
Joe Pyfer vs. Marc Andre Barriault
• Prediction: Pyfer moneyline (-300 at Bet99)
• Best Bet: Pyfer by KO (+205 at Bet99)
Click on each fight to jump to the full analysis.
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UFC 303 prelim odds and picks
Andrei Arlovski vs. Martin Buda fight odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Arlovski | Buda |
| To win outright | +210 | -275 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +1,050 | +320 |
| To win by points | +335 | +170 |
| To win by submission | +2,700 | +335 |
| Draw | +2,500 | +2,500 |
Odds courtesy of BET99 on June 29, 2024.
Arlovski can still give it a good go at 45, but whatever late-career magic the living legend had is all used up. He’s lost his last three in a row and is just drudging forward, relying on his veteran guile and durability to feast on heavyweights who aren’t suited for long-term engagements within the promotion.
Buday is coming off a bad loss to Shamil Gaziev in his last fight, and he won’t have to worry too much against the slower and more conservative offense from Arlovski. The 32-year-old Slovakian has good hand speed for a heavyweight, is accurate, and his defense should hold up against Arlovski’s limited attack.
One thing that Arlovski has proven consistent at is going the distance, so I’m going to pick Buday by way of the judge's scorecards.
Prediction: Buday moneyline (-245 at Bet99)
Best Bet: Buday by decision (+180 at Bet99)
Michelle Waterson-Gomez vs. Gillian Robertson fight odds
|
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Waterson-Gomez | Robertson |
| To win outright | +145 | -190 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +1,200 | +750 |
| To win by points | +235 | +235 |
| To win by submission | +1,250 | +240 |
| Draw | +2,500 | +2,500 |
Odds courtesy of BET99 on June 29, 2024.
Things haven’t been good for Waterson-Gomez for a long time. “The Karate Hottie” is getting mangled and mauled, winless since 2020 with six losses in her last 10 fights. Somehow, oddsmakers believe she has somewhat of a chance against the rapidly improving Robertson, who enters Saturday as the younger and physically stronger fighter of the two.
Six of Waterson-Gomez’s losses have been finishes, and Robertson has the tools to get this fight on the ground and hunt for submissions. There hasn’t been anything we’ve seen from Waterson-Gomez in recent years that suggests she’ll have much to offer here.
I’m going with Robertson to win by points or submission.
Prediction: Robertson moneyline (-190 at Bet99)
Best Bet: Robertson by points or submission (-130 at Bet99)
Joe Pyfer vs. Marc Andre Barriault fight odds
|
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Pyfer | Barriault |
| To win outright | -320 | +240 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +200 | +500 |
| To win by points | +190 | +725 |
| To win by submission | +425 | +2,700 |
| Draw | +2,500 | +2,500 |
Odds courtesy of BET99 on June 29, 2024.
Pyfer saw the wind get taken out of his sails when Jack Hermansson handled him, leaving many to label him a hype job. Meanwhile, Barriault had a near-miss against Chris Curtis in his last fight, so he’s just as desperate for a win as Pyfer. However, Pyfer looks to have the advantage in both striking and grappling, with Barriault perhaps having slightly better conditioning if he can manage to outlast Pyfer’s early assault.
Barriault isn’t going to be able to replicate Hermansson’s game plan, and Pyfer isn’t going to have trouble finding his mark when the two exchange shots. I expect Pyfer to rebound and show a more coordinated attack, eventually getting Barriault to the ground where he’ll stop him via strikes.
Prediction: Pyfer moneyline (-300 at Bet99)
Best Bet: Pyfer by KO (+205 at Bet99)
Not intended for use in MA.
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