Jan Blachowicz vs Carlos Ulberg Predictions, Picks & Odds

Former light heavyweight champion Jan Blachowicz takes on the hard-hitting future of the division Carlos Ulberg in a critical clash near the top of the division on UFC Fight Night this Saturday, March 22. 

Blachowicz hopes to end a two-year layoff and get back in the mix for a title shot, though Ulberg might be too much for the now 42-year-old former champ to handle.

UFC odds favor Ulberg at -290 while Blachowicz is a +220 underdog. Here are my best Blachowicz vs. Ulberg predictions and free betting picks from the O2 Arena in London.

Blachowicz vs Ulberg prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Ulberg moneyline (-300 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-145 at BET99)

Fight analysis
It has been almost two years since Jan Blachowicz nearly derailed the Alex Pereira hype train, only to lose a split decision. That fight followed a controversial draw against Magomed Ankalaev, who later used a similar game plan to defeat him. Since then, Blachowicz has undergone major shoulder surgery, and despite his experience and power, Carlos Ulberg is a daunting challenge for an inactive fighter in his 40s.

Ulberg is not just a dangerous striker, he’s difficult to control in the clinch and hard to take down. He lands an astonishing 7.2 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 4.27 and boasts an 83% takedown defense. His ability to control the distance and set up massive shots makes him a constant finishing threat, capable of shutting the lights off the moment his opponent takes a risk to close the distance.

Blachowicz is a former champion and a likely future Hall of Famer, but the oddsmakers may be overestimating his recent form based on his performance against Pereira. He can still land thudding shots and is a capable wrestler, but his wrestling has primarily been effective against smaller opponents. Glover Teixeira and Ankalaev both dominated him in grappling exchanges, and expecting him to outwrestle a fighter with elite takedown defense like Ulberg after a long layoff seems unrealistic.

Ulberg’s speed and power should become a factor early in the fight, exposing the reality that Blachowicz has lost a step. The legendary "Polish Power" won’t be enough to bail him out this time. Ulberg is the pick.

Best bet analysis
Toughness is often the last thing to fade in a fighter, and Blachowicz is no exception. While he will be outgunned, he has enough durability and veteran savvy to survive into the later rounds. My best bet is for the fight to go Over 2.5 rounds.

Jan Blachowicz vs Carlos Ulberg odds

Method of Victory	Blachowicz	Ulberg
To win outright	+225	-300
To win by KO/TKO	+500	+135
To win by decision	+640	+185
To win by submission	+1400	+1800
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 3-21.

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Jan Blachowicz vs Carlos Ulberg tale of the tape

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