Marvin Vettori vs Roman Dolidze Predictions, Picks & Odds

Marvin Vettori makes his return to the octagon after almost two years to face off against a familiar foe in Roman Dolidze, who is ready to avenge his previous defeat. This middleweight bout between two top contenders is this weekend’s UFC Fight Night main event.

UFC odds have Vettori as a -155 favorite and Dolidze is a +130 underdog. Here are my best Vettori vs. Dolidze predictions and free betting picks from the Apex in Las Vegas.

Vettori vs Dolidze prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Vettori moneyline (-155 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Fight will go the distance (-200 at BET99)

Fight analysis
Of all the fights in recent years that I wouldn't have expected to have a rematch, this is one of them. 

At UFC 286, Marvin Vettori handed Roman Dolidze a clear loss by giving him a boxing lesson, out-landing him 106-71 in strikes and stuffing his lone takedown attempt. Since then, Vettori has been inactive following a brutal, one-sided loss to Jared Cannonier and is making his first appearance since June 2023.

Dolidze, on the other hand, has fought three times since then. He suffered a blowout loss to Nassourdine Imavov, despite the nonsensical majority decision call, then bounced back with a pair of wins. He took a short-notice fight against Anthony Smith at light heavyweight that was awful to watch, followed by a first-round knockout win over Kevin Holland at UFC 308 when Holland couldn’t leave his corner due to a rib injury.

As combat sports tend to follow a "what have you done for me lately" mentality, I’m surprised that Vettori is favored based on his inactivity and Dolizde’s recent performances. However, I don’t see Dolidze having improved enough unless the beating Vettori took from Cannonier has left him significantly diminished.

Dolidze often fights against his strengths. Though he has world-class wrestling credentials, he’s abandoned those skills to be a rough-and-tumble brawler. While he is physically powerful, his striking is technically flawed.

The issue in the first fight was that Dolidze barely attempted to wrestle and struggled to cut off the cage. Vettori darted in and out before Dolidze could wind up and throw, and unless Dolidze has made significant adjustments, I don’t see that dynamic changing in the rematch.

Vettori remains a quality contender, and while I can see Dolizde making adjustments resulting in a closer fight, I have to give Vettori the edge.

Best bet analysis
Vettori and Dolidze are both durable fighters, and while Vettori has the better cardio since we’ve seen Dolidze slow down late in fights, a two-year layoff will all but ensure he’ll be slow to start.

There weren’t any major moments of drama in their first fight, and this bout figures to be more competitive, but it’ll take a major drop off from Vettori along with an overnight fight IQ upgrade in Dolizde for it to end in any way aside from a decision. My best bet is that the fight goes the full distance.

Marvin Vettori vs Roman Dolidze odds

Method of Victory	Vettori	Dolidze
To win outright	-155	+130
To win by KO/TKO	+1050	+450
To win by decision	+110	+335
To win by submission	+1050	+790
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 3-15.

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Marvin Vettori vs Roman Dolidze tale of the tape

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