Gunnar Nelson vs Kevin Holland Predictions, Picks & Odds

The UFC returns to London as O2 Arena hosts Saturday's UFC Fight Night program. The main card features a welterweight bout between unranked contenders Gunnar Nelson and Kevin Holland.

Current UFC odds list Nelson as a slight favorite at -125 via BET99, while Holland is priced at +100. Here are my Nelson vs. Holland predictions and free betting picks for the March 22 event in London.

Nelson vs Holland prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Nelson moneyline (-130 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Nelson by submission (+230 at BET99)

Fight analysis
Kevin Holland returns to welterweight after a brief stint in the 185-pound division. Holland went 1-2 at middleweight and returns to 170 pounds, where he has also struggled.

At welterweight, Holland is 4-3 in the UFC. 

Holland is highly respected in the MMA community for his busy schedule and aggressive fight style. However, those factors have contributed to his 1-4 record over his last five fights.

Holland frequently puts himself in dangerous situations, often talking or laughing during fights instead of focusing on the task at hand. As a fan, I love watching Holland because of his entertaining fight style.

However, as a gambler, it’s hard to invest your own money into someone who fights in this capacity.

On the other hand, Gunnar Nelson is a much more quiet, focused, and disciplined fighter who carries a 3-2 record over his last five fights. The only two losses over that stretch were by decision to Leon Edwards and Gilbert Burns, two of the better welterweights over the past decade.

Best bet analysis
Oddsmakers expect this fight to end inside the distance, pricing that prop at -220. If the fight does not go to the judges, Nelson’s most likely path to victory is by submission.

Of Nelson’s 19 professional wins, 17 have come inside the distance, including 14 by submission. Nelson is an excellent grappler who can capitalize if Holland loses focus for even a split second.

Holland often falls into a rear-naked choke and has tapped to that choke in three of his four professional losses by submission. This is a dangerous trend against Nelson, whose last 10 victories feature five wins by rear-naked choke.

Nelson’s moneyline at -125 via BET99 still offers solid value. However, if you want a higher payout, the best bet is Nelson by submission at +230.

Gunnar Nelson vs Kevin Holland odds

Method of Victory	Nelson	Holland
To win outright	-130	+105
To win by KO/TKO	+1000	+265
To win by decision	+305	+390
To win by submission	+230	+1300
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 3-21.

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Gunnar Nelson vs Kevin Holland tale of the tape

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