UFC 304: Arnold Allen vs Giga Chikadze Odds, Picks & Predictions

The UFC 304 main card in Manchester features a featherweight bout between No. 6-ranked contender Arnold Allen and No. 10 Giga Chikadze. 

UFC odds have Allen as a sizable betting favorite at -230, while Chikadze returns at +180. Here are my free betting picks for Allen vs. Chikadze at the UFC event at Co-op Live.

Allen vs Chikadze prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Allen moneyline (-230 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
   Allen by decision (+105 at BET99)

Fight analysis

Now is the time to buy low on Arnold Allen after dropping each of his past two fights. Prior to those two losses, Allen was 10-0 in the UFC and looking like he was on his way to fighting for the 145-pound belt.

I still believe his ceiling is that of a champion in this division. First, let’s look at those two losses.

The first came against Max Holloway, who is undoubtedly a Top 3 145-pounder of all-time. Allen’s other loss came against the highly-touted Movsar Evloev, who carries a spotless 18-0 professional record and is currently the No. 5-ranked contender in the division. These losses shouldn’t be held against Allen.

Meanwhile, Giga Chikadze’s resume just doesn’t match up to Allen’s, which is why he is a sizable underdog. His wins aren’t as impressive and his losses are against inferior competition.

Best best analysis

Instead of laying -230 on Allen’s moneyline, I think there is more value in backing him to win by decision at +105. Oddsmakers are expecting this fight to go the distance, with the “Fight goes to decision” prop listed at -210.

Oddsmakers also suggest that Allen by decision is his most likely path to victory, given that his knockout prop is listed at +500 and his submission prop is listed at +640. These price discrepancies make sense given that it is nearly impossible to finish Chikadze.

He has never been knocked out across 18 professional fights and has only tapped out once, which occurred over six years ago. So, if we are going the distance, who has the edge? I give it to Allen.

The six-year age gap will bode well for Allen in the later rounds. He also was competitive in both decision losses to Holloway and Evloev, proving that he can go the distance against elite competition. 

With all due respect to Chikadze, he is just simply not on the level of either of those two guys, so the scorecards should go in Allen’s favor this time around. Chikadze got absolutely mauled by Calvin Kattar, but survived for a five-round decision loss.

Allen was beating Kattar before knocking him out, so Allen should be able to dominate Chikadze. However, given Chikadze’s durability and the fact that this fight is only three rounds, Allen by decision at plus-money is my preferred way to back the heavy favorite.

I project Allen to just pick his spots, land clean shots all fight and coast to a 30-27 decision victory.

Arnold Allen vs Giga Chikadze odds

Method of Victory	Arnold Allen	Giga Chikadze
To win outright	-230	+180
To win by KO/TKO	+500	+510
To win by decision	+105	+405
To win by submission	+640	+2,500
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 7-25.

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Arnold Allen vs Giga Chikadze tale of the tape

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