Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Carlston Harris Odds, Picks & Predictions

Santiago Ponzinibbio and Carlston Harris meet at the crossroads as these welterweight veterans are likely fighting for their careers in the co-main event of 2025’s first UFC Fight Night. 

While Ponzinibbio hasn’t had the best of luck in recent years, he should have enough to beat the rugged and rough Harris. UFC odds have him as the -140 favorite, with Harris coming back at +115.

Here are my best free Ponzinibbio vs. Harris predictions from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.

Ponzinibbio vs Harris prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Ponzinibbio moneyline (-140 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Ponzinibbio moneyline (-140 at BET99)

Fight analysis

At first glance, it’s easy to see why the fight odds are so close. Santiago Ponzinibbio is 1-4 in his last five fights, he’s on the wrong side of 30, and has lost his last two fights in a row. Carlston Harris has done slightly better at 2-3, is slightly younger, and is explosive enough to catch his fading foe. Upon further review, however, there’s more than meets the eye.

Aside from his knockout loss to Kevin Holland, Ponzinibbio’s three losses were split decisions that perhaps should have gone his way and came against far better opponents than Harris. Had Ponzinibbio won those fights officially, he’d be a borderline Top 10 welterweight and a huge favorite to win.

Harris is a dangerous striker due to his power and unconventional technique, but because he’s very crude, he charges into big shots. That won’t work well against a solid striker who likes to keep the fight at maximum distance.

Ponzinibbio is the better technical striker overall. He’s not easy to take down and he’ll be faster with his hands than Harris. While he’s fighting with a slight reach disadvantage, Ponzinibbio’s speedy jab and movement should be enough to keep Harris off balance.

We’ve never seen Harris succeed against someone like Ponzinibbio before, and even this past-prime version should have enough in the tank to beat him. With Ponzinibbio being severely undervalued, I’m making him my pick in a fight I expect him to win rather handily.

Best best analysis

Ponzinibbio’s record may be a bit deceiving, as the only blowout loss he’s had was to Li Jingliang. He’s not exactly going to fold on himself with the first blow Harris lands. If anything, Harris is going to be an open book for the Argentine’s sharper hands and will get beaten to the punch frequently.

I’ll take Ponzinibbio straight-up as my best bet.

Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Carlston Harris odds

Method of Victory	Ponzinibbio	Harris
To win outright	-140	+115
To win by KO/TKO	+240	+540
To win by decision	+305	+365
To win by submission	+750	+525
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 1-11.

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Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Carlston Harris tale of the tape

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