UFC 311 takes place tonight at the Intuit Dome in Los Angeles and features two title fights on the top of the main card, along with a series of explosive battles.
There are quite a few intriguing fights on the prelims that can boost your winnings, and we’re expecting the likes of Grant Dawson, Jailton Almeida, and Bernardo Sopaj to do just that.
Here are my best free UFC 311 preliminary predictions.
UFC 311 prelim picks and predictions
Ricky Turcios vs Bernardo Sopaj
• Prediction: Sopaj ML (-270 at Bet99)
• Best Bet: Sopaj by KO (+335 at Bet99)
Jailton Almeida vs Sergey Spivac
• Prediction: Almeida ML (-500 at Bet99)
• Best Bet: Under 1.5 rounds (-125 at Bet99)
Grant Dawson vs Diego Ferreira
• Prediction: Dawson ML (-250 at Bet99)
• Best Bet: Dawson by decision (+150 at Bet99)
Click on each fight to jump to the full analysis.
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UFC 311 prelim odds and picks
Ricky Turcios vs Bernardo Sopaj fight odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Turcios | Sopaj |
| To win outright | +215 | -270 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +1100 | +335 |
| To win by decision | +400 | +110 |
| To win by submission | +1150 | +700 |
| Draw | +2,500 | +2,500 |
Odds as of 1-18.
This fight was originally scheduled for last November before being delayed, but my outlook hasn’t changed. Turcios struggles against pressure fighters and has poor takedown defense, which plays directly into Sopaj’s strengths.
Sopaj excels at darting in, pushing opponents back, and unleashing big shots on the inside. Seven of his wins have come via finish, so he is up against an opponent tailor-made for his style.
Turcios’ best chance lies in surviving early and hoping Sopaj gasses out, as he did against Vinicius Oliveira. However, with extra preparation time and the motivation to bounce back from that loss, Sopaj’s conditioning should be improved. I like Sopaj to win by knockout.
Prediction: Sopaj moneyline (-270 at Bet99)
Best Bet: Sopaj by KO (+335 at Bet99)
Jailton Almeida vs Sergey Spivac fight odds
|
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Almeida | Spivac |
| To win outright | -500 | +400 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +185 | +875 |
| To win by decision | +370 | +1050 |
| To win by submission | +145 | +2250 |
| Draw | +2,500 | +2,500 |
Odds as of 1-18.
This is an intriguing matchup between two of the best grapplers in the heavyweight division. While Spivac is skilled, Almeida appears to be superior in nearly every area.
He has better wrestling, more powerful striking, stronger takedowns, and better takedown defense. If this fight goes to the ground, Spivac might be able to scramble back to his feet, but Almeida’s ability to seamlessly switch to ground-and-pound if his submissions aren’t working makes him especially dangerous.
The wildcard is Almeida’s size. He’s on the smaller side for a heavyweight, whereas Spivac is a big, powerful fighter who could be difficult to shake off if he secures good positioning.
That said, I believe Almeida’s speed and technical ability will keep him out of trouble. I’m picking Almeida to win, but my best bet is the fight goes under 1.5 rounds.
Prediction: Almeida moneyline (-500 at Bet99)
Best Bet: Under 1.5 rounds (-125 at Bet99)
Grant Dawson vs Diego Ferreira fight odds
|
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Dawson | Ferreira |
| To win outright | -250 | +205 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +255 | +600 |
| To win by decision | +150 | +550 |
| To win by submission | +600 | +1100 |
| Draw | +2,500 | +2,500 |
Odds as of 1-18.
Grant Dawson seems to have rebounded well from his knockout loss to Bobby Green and should secure his third straight win against the aging Diego Ferreira.
Dawson is primarily a wrestler, and he excels at getting takedowns and keeping his opponents grounded. While he has striking skills to set up his grappling, his real bread and butter is controlling opponents on the mat.
Ferreira always has a puncher’s chance, particularly against Dawson, whose chin is suspect. However, at 40 years old and facing a fighter whose relentless style will wear him down quickly, I don’t see Ferreira pulling off the upset.
While Ferreira is on a two-fight winning streak, those wins came after a three-fight skid where grapplers dominated him. Against Dawson, the streak ends here.
Prediction: Dawson moneyline (-250 at Bet99)
Best Bet: Dawson by decision (+150 at Bet99)
Not intended for use in MA.
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