UFC 311: Jiri Prochazka vs Jamahal Hill Predictions, Picks & Odds

Jiri Prochazka faces off against Jamahal Hill at UFC 311 on Saturday night. 

This should be a banger between a pair of light heavyweight contenders with crazy power. UFC odds opened with this bout at close to a pick'em, but money has come in on Hill, shifting his line to -130.

See why I'm going against the line movement with my free betting picks for Prochazka vs. Hill on January 18.

Prochazka vs Hill prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Prochazka moneyline (+110 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Prochazka by KO/TKO/DQ (+195 at BET99)

Fight analysis

Both fighters are coming off knockout losses to current light heavyweight champ Alex Pereira, with Prochazka getting knocked out in June and Hill getting starched two months before. The similarities don't end there, with Prochazka and Hill previously claiming the belt by beating Glover Teixeira before immediately vacating the title due to injuries.

Both of these fighters are high-volume strikers with massive frames and devastating power. They also leave themselves open defensively with Prochazka known for his aggressive approach and willingness to tank shots and Hill keeping his hands low in exchanges.

That makes a matchup like this practically a coin flip, which has me backing the guy coming in at plus money. Another reason I like Prochazka in this spot is because I'm wary of Hill's injury history. 

Hill looked flatfooted and displayed poor lateral mobility in his loss to Pereira which may have been due to coming back from an Achilles tendon rupture. He's still only 18 months removed from that injury, and he pulled out of a fight last summer due to two tears in his meniscus and an MCL sprain. 

Hill is a big guy who balloons up to 260 pounds between fights and that can cause a lot of stress on joints and tendons. If his mobility is compromised due to those lower body injuries, he could be a sitting duck when Prochazka blitzes. 

Best bet analysis

Another to reason to bet on Prochazka is because he presents fantastic value on this method to win prop.

I could see Hill winning either by knockout or decision if he relies on his cleaner striking and manages to avoid danger for 15 minutes. However, Prochazka's path to victory lies almost exclusively in knocking out Hill. 

Prochazka always fights with reckless abandon and is willing to go out on his shield. He has an incredible 97% finish rate in 30 career wins, and 11 of his last 12 victories have come by knockout. The upside on backing Pereira to win by KO/TKO at nearly 2:1 is too good to pass up.

Jiri Prochazka vs Jamahal Hill odds

Method of Victory	Prochazka	Hill
To win outright	+110	-135
To win by KO/TKO	+195	+185
To win by decision	+600	+310
To win by submission	+1800	+1500
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 1-16.

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Jiri Prochazka vs Jamahal Hill tale of the tape

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