UFC 309 Prelim Picks & Predictions: Weidman Shines

UFC 309 takes place this weekend at Madison Square Garden, and it features the long-awaited heavyweight clash between champion Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic. Chris Weidman, Jhonata Diniz, and Marcus McGhee are all featured on an action-packed preliminary card.

Here are my best free UFC 309 preliminary picks and predictions from Madison Square Garden on Saturday, November 16.

UFC 309 prelim picks and predictions

Fight 1
• Prediction: Jhonata Diniz ML (+120 at BET99)
• Best Bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-135 at BET99)

Fight 2
• Prediction: Marcus McGhee ML (-140 at BET99)
• Best Bet: McGhee round 1 (+525 at BET99)

Fight 3
• Prediction: Chris Weidman ML (+100 at BET99)
• Best Bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-220 at BET99)

Click on each fight to jump to the full analysis.

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UFC 309 prelim odds and picks

Marcin Tybura vs Jhonata Diniz fight odds

Method of Victory	Tybura	Diniz
To win outright	-135	+110
To win by KO/TKO	+475	+165
To win by decision	+335	+725
To win by submission	+295	+2500
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 11-16.

Jhonata Diniz was pulled from a fight with Derrick Lewis last weekend and now faces a more dangerous opponent in Marcin Tybura.

While Tybura isn’t particularly flashy, he’s a grinder who can take opponents to the ground, and Diniz becomes functionally ineffective if he’s taken off his feet.

However, Diniz's superior striking and movement should be enough to keep Tybura at bay. Tybura's not a mobile heavyweight, and Diniz’s kickboxing prowess will likely allow him to target Tybura's legs and body, slowing him down as the fight progresses.

With Tybura coming in as a late replacement and Diniz already in fighting shape from the Lewis cancellation, Diniz should be primed to show out against the heavyweight mainstay. As long as Diniz stays off the mat, he’ll be able to pick Tybura apart. That said, the methodical pace at which both men tend to fight suggests it’ll be best to bet it going over 1.5 rounds.

Prediction: Jhonata Diniz ML (+120 at BET99)
Best Bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-135 at BET99)

Johnathan Martinez vs Marcus McGhee fight odds

Method of Victory	Martinez	McGhee
To win outright	+105	-130
To win by KO/TKO	+475	+235
To win by decision	+230	+255
To win by submission	+1350	+1450
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 11-16.

This figures to be a striking match, with Marcus McGhee’s stopping power carrying beyond the first round.

While he may not be as effective after the opening stanza, he is naturally heavy-handed, and Johnathan Martinez’s only option to win this fight is to hang in there with McGhee, remaining mindful of his defense while waiting for an opportunity to strike as he slows down.

Admittedly, I don’t think Martinez will make it that far. McGhee’s intensity and power will shine through, and he’ll catch and stop Martinez with a first-round knockout.

Prediction: Marcus McGhee ML (-140 at BET99)
Best Bet: McGhee round 1 (+525 at BET99)

Chris Weidman vs Eryk Anders fight odds

Method of Victory	Weidman	Anders
To win outright	+100	-120
To win by KO/TKO	+625	+380
To win by decision	+195	+185
To win by submission	+950	+1550
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 11-16

At 41, Chris Weidman is no longer a world-class fighter, but he’s still a former champion with excellent wrestling and experience.

Eryk Anders isn’t likely to outwork Weidman on the ground, and while he may have an advantage in striking, Weidman isn’t a slouch in the stand-up game and is arguably the more refined striker.

Ultimately, Weidman isn’t going to come out guns blazing like Anders, and he should have enough in the tank to get through the fight.

I’m picking Weidman to pull off a minor upset because he can still beat someone like Anders, but I’ll make my best bet a safer choice that the fight goes over 2.5 rounds.

Prediction: Chris Weidman ML (+100 at BET99)
Best Bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-220 at BET99)

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