UFC Fight Night Alex Caceres vs Daniel Pineda Picks and Predictions: Caceres Puts a Hurting on Pineda

Alex Caceres is facing off against Daniel Pineda in the co-main event for UFC Fight Night betting tonight. 

This is an intriguing featherweight bout between a duo of grizzled MMA veterans who have combined for almost 80 fights in their careers. Caceres has enjoyed more success recently and oddsmakers expect that to continue, with UFC betting lines opening with him as a -175 favorite.

Here are my best free picks and predictions for Caceres vs. Pineda on June 3 from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.

Alex Caceres vs Daniel Pineda fight odds

Alex Caceres vs Daniel Pineda method of victory odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on June 1, 2023.

Alex Caceres vs Daniel Pineda picks

• Prediction: Caceres (-175)
• Best bet: Caceres moneyline (-175)

Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Alex Caceres vs Daniel Pineda betting preview

Alex "Bruce Leeroy" Caceres has won six of his last seven fights, and is coming off a first-round knockout win against Julian Erosa last December that earned him a Performance of the Night bonus. The 34-year-old has been competing in the UFC since 2011, compiling a 15-11-1 record inside the octagon.

Caceres has a well-rounded skillset but doesn't stand out in any one area. He has refined kickboxing ability and lands 4.16 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.92.

Daniel Pineda previously competed in the UFC from 2012 to 2014, going 3-4 during his first stint in the promotion. After spending several years hopping around the fight circuit at Legacy FC, Bellator, Fury FC, and PFL, he came back to the UFC with a knockout victory against Herbert Burns in 2020.

After getting knocked out by Cub Swanson later that year, he fought against Andre Fili in 2021 but couldn't finish the bout due to an eye poke. After more than 20 months away from the sport, he returned to the octagon two months ago and submitted Tucker Lutz to claim Performance of the Night honors.

Pineda throws powerful overhand shots and is an extremely dangerous grappler, with 19 of his 28 career wins coming by way of submission. 

Alex Caceres vs Daniel Pineda tale of the tape

Alex Caceres vs Daniel Pineda UFC prediction and best bet

Fight prediction: Alex Caceres

Pineda certainly has a puncher's chance, and we saw him win as a +215 underdog his last time out against Lutz. However, Caceres is a bit younger and has been in excellent form lately, with six wins in his last seven fights.

Caceres is also the bigger fighter with a 4.5-inch reach advantage, and he's much tighter and more polished in his striking than Pineda, who is a bit wild at times. He's also steadier over the entire course of the bout, while Pineda can be a bit uneven with his output. 

Prediction: Caceres moneyline (-175 at bet365)

Fight best bet: Caceres moneyline

If you like Pineda to win you may as well back him to win inside the distance, which is available as high as +250 at DraftKings. Pineda has a 100% finish rate across a generous sample size of 28 career victories. His best chance of getting the W is by either catching Caceres with an overhand right or submitting him on the mat.

However, Caceres has far more paths to victory, while his reach advantage and superior striking will make it tough for Pineda to land those big shots in close.

I'll back Bruce Leeroy here and would give him approximately a 70% chance of getting the victory. With his moneyline odds available as low as -175 (for an implied probability of 63.6%), that's a good enough edge to play.

Pick: Caceres moneyline (-175 at bet365)

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