UFC Fight Night: Amanda Lemos vs Virna Jandiroba Odds, Picks, & Predictions

Amanda Lemos faces off against Virna Jandiroba in the main event for UFC Fight Night betting tonight. The headliner features a pair of Top-5 strawweight, and the UFC odds suggest we'll get a very competitive bout.

Jandiroba is a slim favorite at -135, with Lemos coming back at +115. Here are my best free UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba predictions for Saturday, July 20.

Lemos vs Jandiroba prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Jandiroba ML (-135 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Fight to go the distance (+140 at BET99)

Fight analysis

Amanda Lemos is coming off a decision win against Mackenzie Dern, which allowed her to bounce back from a lopsided decision loss against Zhang Weili when she unsuccessfully challenged for the belt last year. She was taken down six times by Weili and controlled for a whopping 16 minutes, while Dern was able to control her for six minutes. 

Lemos is a crisp striker with heavy hands, but she's been fortunate to face few grappling specialists at this level. Unfortunately for her, Virna Jandiroba has the high-end BJJ ability to expose her weakness on the ground.

Jandiroba is on a three-fight winning streak, where she racked up a total of eight takedowns and 25 minutes of control time against Loopy Godinez, Marina Rodriguez, and Angela Hill — all of whom are ranked in the Top 10. 

Jandiroba doesn't have a high takedown accuracy, but she is relentless with her attempts and we've seen Lemos struggle with trips and sweeps against the fence. The smaller octagon at the Apex will help Jandiroba get into those positions, and once she's on top, she'll be able to maintain control and either grind out a decision or sink a sub.

Best best analysis

While Jandiroba is an elite grappler with 13 of her 20 career wins coming by submission, she's had a tough time finishing ranked opponents. Jandiroba's last four fights have gone the distance, and Lemos is the No. 3 ranked strawweight contender and managed to last 25 minutes against Zhang.

Likewise, while Lemos has knockout power, Jandiroba has never been finished or even knocked down in her career. Her grappling should be able to stifle Lemos' offense and drain time off the clock. 

Amanda Lemos also has questionable cardio, while Virna Jandiroba hasn't gone past three rounds since 2018. As a result, we could see the pace slow down even more in the championship rounds.

Female main events in the UFC rarely see finishes, as the matchups are generally competitive and there isn't as much stopping power as the men's side. There have been 23 of them since 2020, and only five of those bouts ended inside the distance. 

Amanda Lemos vs Virna Jandiroba odds

Method of Victory	Lemos	Jandiroba
To win outright	+115	-135
To win by KO/TKO	+220	+1,450
To win by decision	+510	+280
To win by submission	+1,900	+210
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 7-17-2024.

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Amanda Lemos vs Virna Jandiroba tale of the tape

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