UFC Fight Night Nicolau vs Perez Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Nicolau Bounces Back in Flyweight Affair

Matheus Nicolau is facing off against Alex Perez in the main event for UFC Fight Night betting tonight. 

Nicolau is the No. 5 ranked flyweight contender and was originally slated to face No. 6 contender Manel Kape at this event before he withdrew at the beginning of the month and was replaced by Perez. UFC odds currently have Nicolau listed as a -175 favorite, with Perez coming back at +145.

Here are my UFC on ESPN: Nicolau vs. Perez predictions for Saturday, April 27 from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.

Matheus Nicolau vs Alex Perez fight odds

Method of Victory	Nicolau	Perez
To win outright	-175	+145
To win by KO/TKO	+475	+425
To win by points	+275	+575
To win by submission	+255	+730
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds courtesy of BET99 on 4-27, 2024.

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Nicolau vs Perez picks

Fight prediction: Nicolau ML

This is a short turnaround for Alex Perez, who fought less than two months ago. 

Perez usually needs to mix in his takedowns to have success, and Nicolau has an outstanding 93% takedown defense. Nicolau also has the striking edge because he has more pop in his shots, and even if Perez can get this to the mat, Nicolau's superior grappling could result in him scrambling into better positions. 

I'll lean towards the more active fighter with more paths to victory.

Prediction: Nicolau moneyline (-180 at Bet99)

Fight best bet: Nicolau by points

Perez is coming off a decision loss to Muhammad Mokaev in March. He was at least able to prove that he's not washed despite not fighting in 20 months, so this bout should be competitive. Perez does a good job of neutralizing offense and will try to grind out a win with his wrestling, which will likely result in this fight going to the judges' cards. 

Nicolau's last win was a knockout against Matt Schnell, but Schnell is hittable and chinny while Perez boasts superior striking defense and is more durable. Nicolau's previous five victories in the UFC had come by way of decision and that's how I expect this fight to go.

Pick: Nicolau by points (+270 at Bet99)

Nicolau vs Perez betting preview

Nicolau hasn't fought since last April when he was knocked out by No. 1 contender Brandon Royval in the first round. That snapped a six-fight winning streak for Nicolau, who is now 19-3 in his MMA career and 7-2 inside the octagon. While the 31-year-old Brazilian has a well-rounded skill set, he doesn't stand out in any one area. 

Perez is on a three-fight losing streak, although those defeats came against some of the top fighters in the division. Perez was submitted by Deiveson Figueiredo when he challenged him for the title in 2020, and he was stopped in the opening round again when he faced current champ Alexandre Pantoja in 2022.

After a 20-month absence, he returned to the octagon last month and lost to Muhammad Mokaev by decision. Perez has strong offensive and defensive wrestling, but there are holes in his grappling. He's also a very capable kickboxer with fast hands, although he doesn't offer much power. 

Matheus Nicolau vs Alex Perez tale of the tape

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