UFC Fight Night Spann vs Guskov Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Spann a Step Above

Light heavyweights Ryan Spann and Bogdan Gusko face off in the co-main event of tonight’s UFC Fight Night, taking placeApril 27, at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.

Spann remains on the fringes of the light heavyweight elite and must now fend off rising contender Guskov, though we believe Spann may be too much for the conditionally questionable Guskov.

UFC odds have Spann the favorite at -210 while Guskov is a +165 underdog. Here are my free betting picks for Spann vs. Guskov, tonight at UFC Fight Night from Las Vegas.

Ryan Spann vs Bogdon Guskov fight odds

Method of Victory	Ryan Spann	Bogdon Guskov
To win outright	-200	+155
To win by KO/TKO	+205	+215
To win by points	+850	+1,600
To win by submission	+215	+1,450
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds courtesy of BET99 on 4-27, 2024.

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Spann vs Guskov picks

Fight prediction: Ryan Spann ML

As Spann has inched closer to getting inside the bubble at light heavyweight, he’s struggled with consistency. Spann has gone 4-4 since 2020, including a two-fight losing streak with a submission loss to Nikita Krylov and a disputed decision loss to Anthony Smith. When he isn’t falling short of the mark, Spann is a mauler with great finishing abilities.

It also has to be noted that his shortcomings have come against established players in the division, and he’s on the precipice of a potential breakthrough into the Top 10.

The same can’t be said for the free-swinging Bogdon Guskov, who brings a raw, unrefined approach to the octagon. While it’s true Spann can’t quite put it together long enough to make that final push, there’s no question he has more going for him than the crude Guskov.

Guskov is 1-1 since joining the UFC, beating Zac Pauga in his last fight and getting dominated and subbed by Volkan Oezdemir in his first one. He's still wet behind the ears after an extended career in regional MMA competition, and there isn’t enough we’ve seen from him at this stage to suggest he can beat a fighter who's banged around with some of the division's best fighters. 

Spann is the better all-around fighter and should have no trouble turning Guskov away. As long as Spann doesn’t get caught with something big in the opening exchanges, he’ll win.

Prediction: Ryan Spann moneyline (-210 at BET99)

Fight best bet: Ryan Spann to win by submission

From a technical and experience standpoint, Spann is a few steps above what Guskov has faced in his career.

A physically strong grappler with solid striking, Spann can quickly transition his offense from stand-up to the ground where he is at his most dangerous. His wrestling is very solid, and for someone who tends to gas out as Guskov does, a trip to the mat might be in order for the Uzbeki brawler.

For the first few minutes of the fight, Gusko will be a threat because he does possess considerable striking power. As long as Spann keeps his distance, particularly making sure Guskov is on the long end of his jab, he’ll avoid the kill shots and potentially lure him into a false sense of confidence.

He’ll continue to throw hard shots and eventually smother himself, which Spann will happily oblige him to do as he’ll grapple and grind him when they clinch.

Once Spann gasses Guskov out, which should be towards the end of the first round, he’ll be all over him in the second. I’m expecting Spann to wrangle a winded Guskov onto the ground, take his back, and close him out with a submission win.

Pick: Ryan Spann to win by submission (+210 at BET99)

Spann vs Guskov betting preview

Spann has tried to get back on track to his pre-2020 form, but Superman has looked to hit his ceiling going 4-4 in his last eight fights. He recently dropped a close decision to Smith in their rematch, making it his second loss in a row. 

Spann has wins over Dominick Reyes, Ion Cutelaba, Misha Cirkunov, and Sam Alvey, and has lost against Smith twice, Krylov, and Johnny Walker. He's primarily a submission specialist where he scores 1.29 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts 1.5 submissions at the same time, and he has 12 submission wins with an average fight time of 5:22.

“Csarevitch” Guskov has never been taken the distance in his professional MMA career. He's coming off a first-round KO win over Pauga last February, which followed a submission loss to Oezdemir in September 2023. A product of the Russian MMA system, Guskov has brutish power and will need to rely on it if he hopes to spring an upset that will propel him up the rankings. 

Physically, Spann has a two-inch advantage in height and a three-inch advantage in reach, whereas Guskov is a year younger. Both men usually finish their opponents inside the distance, with most of their fights ending inside the first round. One thing each fighter has in common is that their losses are equally distributed between decisions, knockouts, and submissions.

Ryan Spann vs Bogdon Guskov tale of the tape

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