UFC Fight Night: Ricky Turcios vs Benardo Sopaj Odds, Picks & Predictions

The Ricky Turcios vs. Benardo Sopaj bantamweight bout serves as the co-main event on this weekend’s UFC Fight Night. These two bantamweights are trying to move up the ladder following a loss, and the heavy-handed Sopaj might have more up his sleeve than Turcios is ready for.

UFC odds have Sopaj as a -340 favorite, and Turcios is a +255 underdog.

Here are my best free UFC Fight Night: Turcios vs. Sopaj predictions from The Apex in Las Vegas.

Turcois vs Sopaj prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Sopaj moneyline (-340 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Sopaj by KO (+340 at BET99)

Fight analysis

Our new co-main event pits two scrappy bantamweights coming off stoppage losses and trying to recapture some momentum. We’ll start with Turcios, who was submitted by Raul Rosas six months ago in a fight where he did little besides getting dragged down to the mat and choked out. Turcios is a decent striker with good wrestling — neither of which we saw against Rosas — but he’s facing a different kind of opponent and will have a three-inch height advantage and a five-inch reach advantage. We’ve seen Turcios load up for big shots, which sometimes works for him, but other times leaves him open to getting outworked or taken down. His takedown defense borders on poor, having suffered 17 takedowns in four fights, and he’s going up against another aggressive opponent in Sopaj.

Sopaj is coming off a highlight-reel loss to Vinicius Oliveira, where he was knocked out by a flying knee back in March. He started strong but began to run out of gas, leaving him vulnerable to the big KO loss. Sopaj took that fight on short notice, which won’t be the case here, and we know Turcios’ porous takedown defense will open up big opportunities for him, despite Turcios’ physical advantages. Sopaj fights with constant pressure and is always up against his opponent’s chest, and that aggressive approach could be problematic for Turcios, who doesn’t perform well when crowded.

There are a few ways this fight can play out. Sopaj could build momentum, get his shots off first, and keep the pressure on Turcios to the point where he lands takedowns and puts him in a bad spot. Alternatively, Turcios could make it a ranged war, keeping Sopaj on the outside, avoiding the mat, and pouncing on him if he tires late in the fight.

Because Turcios doesn’t fare well when forced backward, Sopaj should find big scoring opportunities early on, and Turcios likely won’t be able to slow him down with grappling. While Turcios could potentially wait out the early storm, he may take too much damage or lose too much ground to catch up, even if Sopaj tires in the third round as he did against Oliveira.

I don’t see this as a winnable fight for Turcios. Outside of his reach advantage, he lacks the tools to keep Sopaj from closing in. The call here is that Sopaj bounces back from his big loss and gets a win over Turcios.

Best best analysis

Sopaj should have no trouble getting on top of Turcios and landing big shots. He has seven stoppages and will be facing an opponent who is not only susceptible to takedowns but also struggles to defend when fighting backward. I’ll take Sopaj’s pressure and the potential for a ground-and-pound knockout as my best bet for the fight.

Ricky Turcios vs Benardo Sopaj odds

Method of Victory	Turcios	Sopaj
To win outright	+255	-340
To win by KO/TKO	+950	+290
To win by decision	+540	+105
To win by submission	+1,550	+640
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 11-9.

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Ricky Turcios vs Benardo Sopaj tale of the tape

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