UFC 258 odds are on the board for a loaded fight card on Saturday, February 13. In the main event, Kamaru Usman will put his welterweight title on the line against No. 1 challenger Gilbert Burns.
UFC betting odds were previously out for the main event last summer, when the fight was originally scheduled. But after Burns dropped out due to COVID-19 and Usman dismantled Jorge Masvidal on short notice, the champion is an even bigger favorite this time around at -270.
Here are the UFC odds for the main event and every other bout on the UFC 258 card:
Where will UFC 258 take place?
UFC 258 will take place at the APEX facility in Las Vegas, Nevada. The octagon at the APEX has a diameter of 25 feet, which is 5 feet smaller than the standard UFC cage.
Who is fighting at UFC 258?
In addition to the main event, other big fights linked to the card include Maycee Barber vs. Alexa Grasso, Kelvin Gastelum vs. Ian Heinisch and Julian Marquez vs. Maki Pitolo.
Usman vs Burns betting action
UPDATE 11:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: The main event is coming up, and Kamaru Usman is now -255 at FanDuel, with Gilbert Burns +210. The favorite is taking 62 percent of bets and 66 percent of cash on the moneyline.
Previous Usman vs Burns action
UPDATE 9:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: With the five-bout main card 30 minutes out, BetMGM Nevada has Kamaru Usman -270 and Gilbert Burns +220, from a high point of -280/+230 and an opening line of -230/+190. "Ticket count is 2.5/1 in favor of Burns, money is just under 2/1 in favor of Usman," BetMGM Nevada's Scott Shelton said.
UPDATE 6 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Kamaru Usman is a -280 favorite at PointsBet USA, with Gilbert Burns +215 on the buyback. "Lopsided action in the welterweight main event," PointsBet's Patrick Eichner said. "Usman is currently drawing 80 percent of tickets and 85 percent of handle."
UPDATE 3 P.M. ET SATURDAY: DraftKings currently has the main event at Kamaru Usman -265/Gilbert Burns +215. Usman is drawing 63 percent of tickets, but the money is running dead even.
UPDATE 9 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Kamaru Usman opened -240 to Gilbert Burns' +200 at William Hill US, and the moneyline is now up to Usman -270/Burns +230. Ticket count is running pretty close, with 53 percent of bets actually on the underdog, while Usman is landing 71 percent of dollars bet. "The sharps bet Usman up early," WillHill director of trading Nick Bogdanovich said. "I think it’ll be good two-way action the whole way. There will be a ton of parlays to Usman and probably more straight bets on Burns. Burns is one of those super live dogs, he’s tough. I can’t wait to watch this one. Usman-Burns is going to be huge, and the rest of the card looks pretty solid. It probably won’t do [Conor] McGregor numbers, but it’ll still be a monster."
UPDATE 3:45 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Nick Kalikas, MMA oddsmaker at Circa Sports, opened this fight on Jan. 10 at Kamaru Usman -240/Gilbert Burns +205. Two days before UFC 258, it's out to Usman -270/Burns +230. "This is definitely one of the most anticipated welterweight title fights we've seen put together in a while. Since our line went up, we've written more overall tickets on Burns, but the bigger bets have been on Usman. We've also seen some decent parlay action on both gentlemen thus far, with slightly more tied into Usman. For now, we've adjusted our pricing accordingly, but I do think we'll see some large straight bets come in on the underdog Burns by post."
Barber vs Grasso betting action
UPDATE 11:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: As the Kelvin Gastelum-Ian Heinisch fight progresses, this bout is at Alexa Grasso -112/Maycee Barber -104 at FanDuel. And the now-short-underdog Barber is taking 71 percent of bets and 79 percent of money.
Previous Barber vs Grasso action
UPDATE 9:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: This women's flyweight clash opened Alexa Grasso -145/Maycee Barber +120 at BetMGM Nevada, and it's now flipped to Barber -120/Grasso even money. "Ticket count is within a handful, a few more tickets on Barber. Money is roughly 3/1 in favor of Barber," BetMGM Nevada's Scott Shelton said.
UPDATE 6 P.M. ET SATURDAY:Alexa Grasso is down to -118 at PointsBet USA, while now-short-underdog Maycee Barber is -106 in the co-main event. "We're currently seeing almost 70 percent of bets placed and almost 90 percent of money wagered on Barber," PointsBet's Patrick Eichner said of action on the women's flyweight bout.
UPDATE 3 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Earlier today, Alexa Grasso was -127 to Maycee Barber's +105 at DraftKings, but the co-main event is now a -110 pick 'em at DraftKings. Barber is attracting 72 percent of bets and 73 percent of cash on the moneyline.
UPDATE 9 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Odds have shortened on this fight at William Hill US, which opened the co-main event at Alexa Grasso -140/Maycee Barber +120 and is now at Grasso -120/Barber even money. The underdog Barber is attracting 69 percent of bets and 87 percent of money.
UPDATE 3:45 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Alexa Grasso opened a -130 favorite at Circa Sports, with Maycee Barber +110, and on Thursday, it's closing in on pick 'em at Grasso -115/Barber -105. "Huge fight in the women's flyweight division," Circa Sports' Nick Kalikas said. "Both ladies looking to pick up a big win and move one step closer to a title shot. We've seen a decent amount of two-way action from the start. Lots of conflicting opinions on how this one plays out, and we're seeing that reflected at the betting window."
Gastelum vs Heinisch betting action
UPDATE 9:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Kelvin Gastelum opened -210 and reached -250 at BetMGM Nevada, but he's now back down to the opener of -210, with Ian Heinisch a +170 underdog. "Ticket count is just over 2/1 in favor of Heinisch, and money is 5/1 in favor of the 'dog."
Previous Gastelum vs Heinisch action
UPDATE 3 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Kelvin Gastelum is currently -225 chalk at DraftKings, with Ian Heinisch a +175 underdog. Gastelum is landing 67 percent of bets, but money is much closer to two-way action, with 56 percent of cash on the favorite.
UPDATE 9 P.M. ET FRIDAY: The odds on this fight continue to tighten at William Hill US. On Friday afternoon, the moneyline was Kelvin Gastelum -220/Ian Heinisch +190, and tonight it's at -200/+175. Gastelum is drawing 63 percent of bets, but the underdog Heinisch is attracting 59 percent of money.
UPDATE 3:45 P.M. THURSDAY: Circa Sports opened Kelvin Gastelum -225 to Ian Heinisch's +195, and the fight stretched to Gastelum -240/Heinisch +205, but on Thursday shortened to Gastelum -210/Heinisch +180. "We started seeing some respectable 'dog action, so we adjusted our pricing, and the market reacted accordingly," Circa MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas said. "Heinisch is looking to pick up the biggest win of his career with a win over former title contender Gastelum. The other side of this is Gastelum looking to stop a three-fight losing skid and get back in the mix at 185."
Other UFC 258 betting action
UPDATE 9:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: "The fight getting the most action is Maki Pitolo-Julian Marquez," BetMGM Nevada's Scott Shelton said, alluding to the first matchup on tonight's five-bout main card. The fight opened Marquez -190/Pitolo +160 and is now -140/+120. "Multiple five-figure bets earlier today on Pitolo. It's 2/1 tickets and 15/1 money on Pitolo," Shelton said. "It's the biggest decision we have right now at Vegas MGM books."
Previous UFC 258 analysis
UPDATE 3 P.M. ET SATURDAY: The opening fight on the five-bout main card is drawing two-way action at DraftKings. Julian Marquez, a -177 favorite, is taking 61 percent of bets, but 57 percent of money is on +175 underdog Maki Pitolo.
UPDATE 9 P.M. ET FRIDAY: At William Hill US, Polyana Viana joins the aforementioned Maycee Barber as the only underdogs on the UFC 258 card to land more tickets and more money than their favored opponents. Viana (+125) is taking 54 percent of bets and 70 percent of money against -145 chalk Mallory Martin in a preliminary card bout. Atop the preliminary card, Rodolfo Vieira (-380) has the highest ticket percentage of all UFC 258 contestants, landing 81 percent of bets for his bout against Anthony Hernandez (+310). Vieira is also attracting 83 percent of cash in that bout.
UPDATE 3:45 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Circa Sports MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas pointed to the Polyana Viana vs Mallory Martin women's strawweight bout on the preliminary card Saturday night. The fight opened Martin -170/Viana +150 and is now Martin -155/Viana +135. "Surprisingly, this one's been a very popular fight at the betting window. We've seen a decent amount of sharp action on both ladies, and I'd expect this to continue the entire way. For an under-the-radar type of fight, I love seeing the amount of action we're getting."
UFC 258 opening odds
| Weight Class | Favorite | Odds | Underdog | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Welterweight | Kamaru Usman | -270 | Gilbert Burns | +230 |
| Women's Flyweight | Alexa Grasso | -110 | Maycee Barber | -110 |
| Middleweight | Kelvin Gastelum | -210 | Ian Heinisch | +180 |
| Women's Flyweight | Miranda Maverick | -155 | Gillian Robertson | +135 |
| Middleweight | Julian Marquez | -170 | Maki Pitolo | +150 |
| Lightweight | Bobby Green | OFF | Jim Miller | OFF |
| Welterweight | Belal Muhammad | -450 | Dhiego Lima | +370 |
| Welterweight | Gabriel Green | -130 | Philip Rowe | +110 |
| Featherweight | Ricky Simon | -250 | Brian Kelleher | +210 |
| Middleweight | Rodolfo Vieira | -500 | Anthony Hernandez | +400 |
| Women's Strawweight | Mallory Martin | -130 | Polyana Viana | +110 |
Odds courtesy of William Hill US
UFC 258 odds for title fights
Kamaru Usman vs Gilbert Burns
The reigning champion Usman enters UFC 251 on a 16-fight winning streak and is a perfect 11-0 in his UFC career. He's fresh off a dominating decision victory against Jorge Masvidal at UFC 251 last July. Burns was originally lined up for that title shot but pulled out after testing positive for COVID-19 just a week before.
Usman was a -205 favorite for that earlier matchup with Burns but is currently a -275 favorite for UFC 258. The "Nigerian Nightmare" began his career as a wrestling-specialist and cardio machine but has since rounded out his talents, becoming an impressive striker as well.
Burns and Usman have trained together for years with Sanford MMA in Florida, with Usman even in Burns' corner at some fights. Burns comes into the octagon as a +225 underdog and is riding a six-fight winning streak after defeating Tyron Woodley in a dominating performance last May.
"Durinho" has jumped between the lightweight and welterweight divisions, making the move back to the 170-pound weight class last August. Burns began his MMA career as more of a grappling specialist but has improved his striking under the tutelage of renowned kickboxing coach Henri Hooft.
Where can I bet on UFC odds?
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