Kamaru Usman vs. Gilbert Burns is the main event for UFC 258 betting on Saturday, February 13. This welterweight title matchup was originally supposed to take place at UFC 251 in July before Burns was forced to drop out after testing positive for COVID-19.
UFC odds have the reigning champion Usman as an even bigger favorite this time around at -280, while the No. 1 contender Burns comes back at +220.
We break down the UFC betting odds for this welterweight title bout and give our best picks and predictions for UFC 258: Usman vs Burns at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.
Usman vs Burns Fights Odds
| Method of Victory | Kamaru Usman | Gilbert Burns |
|---|---|---|
| Win Outright | -280 | +220 |
| Win by KO/TKO | +210 | +700 |
| Win by Points | +140 | +650 |
| Win by Submission | +1,700 | +750 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Usman vs Burns Betting Preview
The reigning champion Kamaru Usman enters UFC 258 on a 16-fight winning streak and is a perfect 11-0 in his UFC career. He's fresh off a dominating decision victory against Jorge Masvidal, who replaced Burns on short notice last July.
The win against Masvidal was the second successful title defense for Usman, who dispatched Colby Covington via TKO in December 2019 after winning the belt in March of that year against Tyron Woodley. The "Nigerian Nightmare" began his career as a wrestling specialist and cardio machine but has since rounded out his talents, turning into an impressive striker as well.
Gilbert "Durinho" Burns and Usman trained together for years with Sanford MMA in Florida, with Usman even in Burns' corner at some fights. Burns, who started his MMA career as a grappling specialist but has since improved his striking under the tutelage of renowned kickboxing coach Henri Hooft, is riding a six-fight winning streak after defeating Woodley via decision in a dominating performance last May. Prior to that, he had a first-round TKO victory against fellow Brazilian Demian Maia in March.
Durinho has jumped between the lightweight and welterweight divisions, making the move back to the 170-pound weight class in 2019. He has looked much more effective at the heavier weight and may have been sapping his strength and explosiveness by cutting down to 155.
Usman vs Burns Tale of the Tape
| Kamaru Usman | Gilbert Burns | |
|---|---|---|
| 33 | Age | 34 |
| 6-foot-0 | Height | 5-foot-10 |
| 170 lbs | Weight | 170 lbs |
| 76 inches | Reach | 71 inches |
| 17-1-0 (7 KO) | Record | 19-3-0 (6 KO) |
Usman vs Burns UFC Predictions and Betting Picks
PREDICTION: Usman -280 - Burns is fantastic when it comes to submissions with his BJJ skills but Usman is excellent at both takedown defense and using his strength to gain superior positioning against the cage. And Usman has a history of neutralizing grappling specialists like Maia and Rafael dos Anjos.
While Burns has improved as a striker and looked excellent on his feet in his previous bout, Woodley has fought very tentatively recently and allowed him to dictate the pace. Don't expect the same tentative style from Usman, whose ability to switch stances and keep constant pressure will force Burns on to the back foot.
Look for Usman to try to keep this fight standing up and use his five-inch reach advantage to chip away at Burns. While Burns packs plenty of power in his punches, he doesn't have the technical striking ability or output of Usman and that will make all the difference.
PREDICTION: Usman by points +140 - Of Burns' 19 victories, 14 were via finishes so don't be surprised if he goes for a submission or a knockout win. That said, Usman has terrific submission defense and uses his length very well in the clinch. He also has a terrific chin, so Burns will likely have a difficult time putting the Nigerian Nightmare to sleep.
Since we're predicting an Usman victory, it's more likely that the favorite will try to control the fight and utilize his incredible cardio to push the pace and tire Burns out.
Although Usman's betting line in this matchup changed from -205 last summer to the current price of -280, his payout for winning via decision has shifted in the opposite direction from +105 to +140. If you want to back Usman at plus money this is the best play.
PREDICTION: Fight to go the distance Yes -106 - Nine of Usman's last 11 fights have gone the distance, and his bout against Covington was less than 60 seconds away from going the full five rounds, as well. Four of Burns' last six fights have also gone the distance.
Both fighters are the type to try to wear away at their opponent, as opposed to going in for the killing blow at every possible opportunity. Even when Burns landed some strong early strikes against Woodley he exercised caution and took the fight to the mat when he could. Expect this fight to go to the cards.
Where Can I Bet on UFC Odds?
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