The retired life wasn’t working for Damir Ismagulov, so he’s looking to get back into the thick of things against the dangerous Grant Dawson as these two lightweights face off in a premier undercard attraction on the July 1 edition of UFC Fight Night from The Apex in Las Vegas.
UFC odds started off strong for Ismagulov, but this is practically a "pick 'em" fight with Ismagulov at -115 and Dawson at -105.
Ismagulov hopes to retain his high ranking at lightweight, and Dawson is nipping at his heels, raring to take him out.
Check out how I see Ismagulov vs. Dawson going down, and what to look out for ahead of their fight this Saturday, July 1.
Damir Ismagulov vs Grant Dawson fight odds
Damir Ismagulov vs Grant Dawson method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Damir Ismagulov | Grant Dawson |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +550 | +900 |
| To win by Points | +150 | +225 |
| To win by Submission | +2,500 | +350 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on July 1, 2023.
Damir Ismagulov vs Grant Dawson picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Damir Ismagulov vs Grant Dawson betting preview
Dawson is undefeated in UFC and aims to move up the lightweight rankings. In his last fight, Dawson beat former Olympian Mark Madsen primarily on the mat, scoring a third-round submission. It was his third finish in four fights, bringing his submission total to 13. The Wisconsin native is taking a big step up in competition but might be battling the scales as well.
The Madsen fight was the second time he’s missed weight. His size is his weapon, as Dawson lands an astounding 3.80 takedowns per fight. Though he’s a standard striker, we’ve seen steady improvements to that side of his offense as he tries to round out his skill set.
Engaging a sharper striker with excellent cardio is a bad idea for Dawson. He’ll need to work his way inside and get Ismagulov to the ground, opting for control rather than damage. Doubts linger about Ismagulov’s desire, but there is no doubt that Dawson is going to be the hungrier fighter in the octagon on this night.
Ismagulov opened as the favorite for this fight, but it’s been trending closer to even as the days go by. After dropping a decision in a tough loss to Arman Tsarukyan, Ismagulov decided to call it a career after disclosing he was suffering from an unknown illness. Six months later, he’s ready to give it another go against Dawson, who hasn’t lost a fight in seven years.
What Ismagulov brings to the table is a well-rounded offense with great striking and formidable grappling. He has a razor-sharp jab and respectable power, having 12 knockouts in 24 wins. The Russian doesn’t waste a lot of energy and is highly disciplined, meaning that he’s equally dangerous at any stage of the fight.
Tsarukyan is a high-level wrestler who shut down his striking game. Ismagulov defends 75% of all takedown attempts and 62% of significant strikes, and defense will be the key against Dawson. Dawson can wrestle him down like Tsarukyan, so keeping the fight standing is his best way to win here.
Damir Ismagulov vs Grant Dawson tale of the tape
| Damir Ismagulov | Grant Dawson | |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | Age | 29 |
| 5-foot-10 | Height | 5-foot-10 |
| 155 pounds | Weight | 155 pounds |
| 74 inches | Reach | 72 inches |
| 24-2 (5-1 UFC) | Record | 19-1-1 (7-0-1 UFC) |
Damir Ismagulov vs Grant Dawson UFC prediction and best bet
Fight prediction: Dawson
Whether it is out of pride or contractual obligation, Ismagulov’s heart may not be in the right place. Dawson looks like he has the goods, and might be a better pure wrestler than Tsarukyan. If Ismagulov is ready to fight, then he gives him a rough 15 minutes of work. It’s a nailbiter, but I’m picking Dawson.
Prediction: Dawson Moneyline (-105 at DraftKings)
Fight best bet: Dawson by decision
Ismagulov hasn’t scored a stoppage since 2018, and Dawson’s last five fights have gone deep into the third round. Considering their durability, there won’t be a finish here, and Dawson’s grappling along with his improved striking should put him over the top. Dawson by decision is my pick.
Pick: Dawson to win by decision (+240 at DraftKings)
