Bryce Mitchell vs. Kron Gracie is a featherweight clash between two grappling and submission specialists and serves as one of the featured attractions on the UFC 310 undercard.
My Mitchell vs. Gracie predictions expect this fight to go the distance, with "Thug Nasty" having his arm raised.
Mitchell vs Gracie prediction and pick
- My fight prediction
Mitchell moneyline (-850 at BET99) - My best bet
Mitchell by decision (-190 at BET99)
Fight analysis
I have to give the UFC credit for paying respects to the legends of the game. Their commitment to honoring the Gracie family and their contributions to MMA is classy, but they’ve gone out of their way in trying to make Kron Gracie a star.
Simply put, Kron is the Bronny James of the Gracie family, getting into the big leagues largely because of his name and showing he still has plenty of work to do now he’s here. Unless Bryce Mitchell decides to treat this as a grappling exhibition, this is Mitchell’s fight to lose.
Mitchell was making his way up the featherweight rankings until Ilia Topuria put him in an arm triangle at UFC 282. He’s also coming off a scary first-round knockout loss to Josh Emmett at UFC 296 last December.
For the most part, Mitchell has made more noise outside the octagon with his unhinged beliefs and conspiracy theories, but he remains an aggressive wrestler who latches on and makes it very hard for opponents to shake him off.
Perhaps Mitchell isn’t as focused, or at least that’s the perception, making him the most credible opponent Gracie can beat if the fight sticks to grappling and submissions.
Even if Mitchell approaches this fight as he has every other in his career, Gracie lacks the confidence or determination to do much more than go through the motions.
His striking is abysmal, even after taking nearly five years away from competition to round out his skills following a loss to Cub Swanson, only to be dominated by Charles Jourdain in his return.
The complexities of modern MMA leave little room for purists like the Gracie family to compete at the highest levels, especially for someone who isn’t putting in the necessary work.
Mitchell will likely get the jump on Gracie, with his aggressive wrestling immediately putting him on the back foot. Even if Gracie manages to stuff some takedowns and shows decent ground defense, Mitchell’s striking is far superior to anything we’ve seen from Gracie.
Keep in mind Gracie absorbs nearly seven strikes per minute and has only a 25% takedown success rate. Gracie’s best chance is to end up on top in a scramble and secure a submission, but he is sorely outmatched here.
This will not be a good night for the Gracie clan. Expect Mitchell to dominate Gracie.
Best best analysis
Mitchell isn’t a finisher, and Gracie will be able to defend himself on the ground during the moments when the fight gets there.
I don’t see many paths for Gracie to pull off a significant upset, and he’ll likely be smothered by Mitchell on the mat with little to offer in the striking exchanges.
Bryce Mitchell vs Kron Gracie odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Mitchell | Gracie |
| To win outright | -900 | +540 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +525 | +2900 |
| To win by decision | -200 | +1250 |
| To win by submission | +440 | +1250 |
| Draw | +2,500 | +2,500 |
Odds as of 12-7.
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Bryce Mitchell vs Kron Gracie tale of the tape
| Mitchell | Gracie | |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | Age | 36 |
| 5-foot-9 | Height | 5-foot-9 |
| 145 lbs | Weight | 145 lbs |
| 70 inches | Reach | 70 inches |
| 16-2 (0 KO) | Record | 5-2 (0 KO) |
Not intended for use in MA.
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