It’s still early in what will be the longest WNBA season ever at 36 games per team, but the Las Vegas Aces have already begun to separate themselves from the rest of the league. And to be the best, you have to beat the best.
The Aces will get that chance this holiday weekend on a trip to face the Chicago Sky. The defending champions may have started the season a little slowly, but suddenly they look like their old selves again.
Here are our free WNBA picks and predictions for Aces vs. Sky on May 28.
Aces vs Sky odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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Aces vs Sky predictions
Predictions made on 5/28/2022 at 3:21 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Aces vs Sky info
• Location: Wintrust Arena, Chicago, IL
• Date: Saturday, May 28, 2022
• Tip-off: 3:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC
Aces vs Sky betting preview
Key injuries
Aces: Riquna Williams G (Doubtful).
Sky: No injuries to report.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The last three Aces games have all gone Over their totals, coincidentally all ending up with exactly 180 points scored. The highest of those totals was a mere 171.0. Find more WNBA betting trends for Aces vs. Sky.
Aces vs Sky picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The new-look Aces have charged into this season, opening 7-1 under head coach Becky Hammon. As soon as she was hired, Hammon preached she would change how Las Vegas played, and it has paid off to the tune of a net differential of +13.2 points per game. Betting against the Aces right now is a bold, perhaps even dubious, tactic.
But there is a chance at value on Chicago this weekend. The Sky started the season 2-2, ho-hum. Then Finals MVP Kahleah Copper returned from her offseason stint with Perfumerías Avenida in Spain. Copper never slowed down after leading Chicago to that title. She took Avenida to the Liga Femenina Endesa championship — rolling through the playoffs 6-0 with only two games even within single digits — and set team highs with 21.4 points and 6.4 rebounds per game.
Now back Stateside, Copper still has not slowed down. In her two games back, she’s averaged 12.0 points and 4.5 rebounds in 31.0 minutes. Obviously, she is still in shape, and obviously, she is still in control on the court.
It is fair to wonder if this calendar will catch up to Copper by season’s end, as is always a concern with star players excelling overseas (and the primary reason the WNBA needs to pay up to give them some time to recuperate), but that worry is not a pressing one just yet.
Adding Copper alongside Candace Parker — 14.3 points and 7.7 rebounds per game in six games — turns the Sky back into their title contender selves. Capitalizing on that combination before books fully catch up to this reality is a logical short-term approach.
Prediction: Sky +3 (-110 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
Eight games into a 36-game season, perhaps sportsbooks have not fully bought in on Hammon’s approach just yet. If they haven’t, they are the only ones. The Aces clearly bought in before the season began.
Las Vegas was perennially last in the league in 3-point attempts. It had been a problem for years under Bill Laimbeer, a problem Hammon openly sought to change right away.
Now, the Aces are second in the league in attempts from beyond the arc, averaging 25.8 per game, up from last season’s 13.5, last in the league by nearly four attempts per game. They lead the league in makes, at 10.6 per game, a 41.3% rate, also tops in the WNBA. On Monday, they tied the W’s record with 18 made threes in one game.
Furthermore, Las Vegas is second in the league in free-throw attempts per game and third in free-throw percentage. To continue to pile on the stats here, the Aces give up the fewest turnovers per game.
It’s no wonder Las Vegas leads the league in scoring at 93.3 ppg, clear of No. 2 by 6.2 points.
As long as the Aces are producing like this, their Overs should hold value. Along with that, the Sky rank No. 3 in points per game, and two-thirds of their games came without their floor general. More should come.
Prediction: Over 168.5 (-110 at bet365)
Best bet
Of Copper’s two games this season, one was a win against the cellar-dwelling Indiana fever. From a handicapping perspective, that elicits the strongest tone of “Whatever” conceivable. The other, though, was a nine-point road win against the 6-2 Washington Mystics, and that is understating the result. The Sky led by 14 with fewer than four minutes remaining.
Chicago can be that good.
As entertaining as Las Vegas has been this season — and let’s all hope that continues — siding with the defending champions when whole is rarely a bad choice.
Pick: Sky moneyline (+135 at bet365)
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