The WNBA All-Star Game is obviously an exhibition among all 12 teams, but it may as well be the Las Vegas Aces against the New York Liberty. The preseason Finals expectation may not seem the same certainty it did back in May, but it is still the most likely conclusion to this season.
With Aces forward A’ja Wilson focusing on her teammates in the All-Star Game draft and Liberty forward Breanna Stewart doing likewise, tonight’s exhibition could turn into a bit of a rivalry matchup.
Here are our free WNBA betting picks and predictions for the WNBA All-Star Game on July 15.
WNBA All-Star Game odds
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Team Stewart | +5.5 (-108) | O 249.5 (-108) |
| Team Wilson | -5.5 (-112) | U 249.5 (-112) |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel as of July 15, 2023.
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WNBA All-Star Game best bet
Fans did not vote for the Liberty as much as they did for the Aces, leaving both leaders of the New York backcourt to come off the bench. But that could simply create value for the bold bettor.
Betting on Team Wilson is betting on the trio of Aces starters to put on a show for their hometown crowd. It’s an understandable thought, particularly with Team Wilson favored by only 5.5 points.
But know who has already put on a show in Las Vegas this week? Liberty guard Sabrina Ionescu set the nets aflame in Friday afternoon’s 3-point contest, hitting 25 of 27 shots. The crowd loved it, her fellow players loved it, and Ionescu should keep chucking in the All-Star Game.
Why wouldn’t she? At the very least, she will get a few extra heaves early on, with teammates setting her up for an encore. And if Ionescu hits those first couple attempts, those chances will keep coming her way.
That’s enough to suggest value in betting on Ionescu to make the most 3s in the game. If she’s going to get a few extra chances to build momentum, that’s an advantage on the rest of the ensemble, even if Jewell Loyd and Arike Ogunbowale are starting.
Ionescu already has an advantage on them: She’s a better shooter. Ionescu has hit 44.6% of her threes this year, compared to 40.5% for Loyd and 29.8% for Ogunbowale.
Furthermore, should this exhibition turn into a mini Aces-Liberty matchup, the rest of the league likely will allow it, meaning Ionescu will keep getting shots while Loyd and Ogunbowale may pass them up.
The only reason to fade Ionescu to hit the most threes is that she’s not starting. With WNBA odds four times more lucrative than Loyd’s, there is still reason to bet on Ionescu coming off the bench.
Best bet: Sabrina Ionescu to make the most threes (+950 at FanDuel)
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WNBA All-Star Game spread and Over/Under analysis
Every shred of logic says this spread favors Team Wilson by 5.5 points because the Aces trio of Wilson, guard Chelsea Gray, and guard Jackie Young, along with guard Kelsey Plum coming off the bench, should want to put on a show at home. While the rest of the league may have spent the week enjoying Las Vegas nightlife, the Aces are used to the local haunts. They have been there, done that.
At least, that is the thinking. But really, this is an All-Star Game. For all we know, Wilson, Gray, Young, and Plum are worn out from hosting parties all week.
The real fun should be the total, set at 249.5. Back in 2021, the All-Star Game total drew headlines when it opened at a similar number and was bet down lower than 200 points before tip. The initial number was based on previous All-Star Games, overlooking the fact that the U.S. women’s national team was playing against the WNBA All-Stars, not a typical All-Star Game. The national team was readying for the Olympics; they wanted the usual exhibition to instead be a competitive environment.
In the last four more traditional WNBA All-Star Games, the final scores have averaged 245.8 total points, if anyone is looking for a reason to bet the Under in an All-Star Game.
WNBA All-Star Game MVP Odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
 Breanna Stewart |
+470 |
 Brittney Griner |
+500 |
 Jewell Loyd |
+600 |
 A'ja Wilson |
+650 |
 Arike Ogunbowale |
+750 |
| Jackie Young |
+850 |
| Chelsea Gray |
+1,200 |
| Sabrina Ionescu |
+1,400 |
| Kelsey Plum |
+1,400 |
 Nneka Ogwumike |
+3,100 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel as of July 15, 2023.
While Team Wilson is favored in this game, it's, oddly enough, a trio of Team Stewart members who headline the All-Star Game MVP odds board, likely behind the logic that the Aces teammates will look to get each other involved rather than putting up the type of stat-stuffing line that MVP voters will be on the lookout for.
