Connecticut Sun vs Dallas Wings Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Ogunbowale & Co. Bounce Back

With 11 games to play, the Dallas Wings trail the Connecticut Sun by six games in the standings. Would cutting that to five with 10 to play be enough to give the Wings hope of reaching the three-seed? It will be a vital distinction, as whoever lands in the No. 3 spot will get to dodge the Las Vegas Aces until the WNBA Finals.

A win tonight would keep Dallas’s hopes alive, however slim they may be. A Connecticut victory could assure the Sun of that side of the bracket, with hopes of even catching the Liberty for No. 2.

Here are our free WNBA picks and predictions for the Sun vs the Wings on August 12.

Sun vs Wings best odds

Sun vs Wings picks and predictions

No team is as good or as bad as its most recent game. This is a known and trusted gambling axiom.

But what about its most recent week?

The Dallas Wings lost three games last week, both outright and against the spread. They gave up 104 points in all three games, thus falling short of bookmakers’ expectations by 18 points per game last week. Before that, there was growing buzz suggesting Dallas could make some postseason noise.

Now? Crickets.

What happened?

This is just one theory, but fatigue happened. Between July 19 and August 8, the Wings played nine games in 21 days. From August 2 to August 8, they appeared in four games over the course of seven days. No one showed that wear more than Arike Ogunbowale. In those last three games, Ogunbowale shot just 30 percent from the field for a total of 37 points.

However, Ogunbowale has always been a high-volume shooter. In the 26 games before last week, she was shooting 39.9 percent this season and averaging 21.8 points per game.

For Ogunbowale to struggle like that for three games in a row? That means something was either wrong on a bigger scale or her legs were simply failing her. Occam’s razor argues the fifth-year veteran was simply worn out.

Ogunbowale and the rest of the Wings have now had four days off. Meanwhile, tonight will be the Connecticut Sun’s third game in five days. In the NBA, facing a quality opponent to close a nine-day road trip would be widely considered a “schedule loss.”

But one of the biggest mistakes the public makes is handicapping the WNBA differently than the NBA. Tonight should be a schedule loss for the Sun, just as the Wings revive their legs. With a spread within a bucket, that schedule loss should also mean Dallas covering.

My best bet: Wings -2.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

Sun vs Wings spread and Over/Under analysis

Despite this handicapper being on a personal cold streak, the line movement appears to agree with this best bet. The spread opened late Friday night with the Wings favored by just 1.5, but early Saturday morning saw that number jump to the current -2.5.

The Wings have gone only 2-5 ATS in their last seven, tracing back to two games into the aforementioned grueling stretch. Before this dropoff, Dallas was 11-10-1 ATS.

Tonight’s total opened at 167.5 before ticking up to 168.5 late Saturday morning — a fitting move given both these teams' trend toward the Over.

Even as Ogunbowale struggled last week, Dallas went Over its total in each of those three losses, and not by a little. Those results cleared their totals by an average of 23.8 points.

Sun vs Wings betting trend to know

The Over is 5-1 in Dallas’s last six home games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sun vs. Wings.

Sun vs Wings game info

Sun vs Wings key injuries

Sun: DeWanna Bonner F (Probable), Brionna Jones F (Out).
Wings: Awak Kuier F (Probable), Lou Lopez Senechal G (Out), Diamond DeShields G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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