The conclusion of the Commissioner’s Cup effectively served as a second break in the middle of the WNBA season. For the Dallas Wings and the Connecticut Sun, that break split up a home-and-home series. Two playoff contenders, the Wings are arguably more motivated with only 10 games left in the season, needing to hold off the Dream for home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.
Will that motivation be enough to sweep this elongated home-and-home, this time as WNBA odds underdogs?
Here are our free WNBA picks and predictions for the Wings vs the Sun on August 18, with tip set for 7:00 p.m. ET.
Wings vs Sun best odds
Wings vs Sun picks and predictions
The handicap before this six-day break was based entirely on Dallas fatigue. The Wings had lost three games in the last week, both outright and against the spread, giving up 104 points in each of those tilts. They had fallen short of bookmakers’ expectations by 18 points per game in that week.
The fatigue showed in Arike Ogunbowale’s stats more than anyone else’s, shooting just 30% across those three games.
Then Dallas had four days off and made the most of the rest. The Wings took a nine-point lead into halftime against the Sun and won by 10 when favored by just 3.5. Ogunbowale wasn’t exactly efficient, not that she ever really is, but shot 7-of-18 for 23 points.
For once, the handicap was spot-on. And it doesn’t need to change. Dallas has been too good of late when decently rested.
The Wings are 8-1 against the spread in their last nine games with at least three days of rest, a stretch dating back to July 2. They went 7-2 straight-up in those games, including going 2-0 ATS as underdogs.
When on less than three days of rest since July 2, Dallas went 1-5 ATS and 2-4 straight-up. That’s obviously a bit of a discrepancy, one worth leaning into.
The same applied to Ogunbowale. The fifth-year veteran shot 36.7% from the field for 16.7 points per game in those six games on weary legs in the last six weeks while hitting 39.9% of her shots for 20.0 points per game in those nine occasions of decent rest.
The Wings are surging when they aren’t exhausted. This line isn’t giving them credit for that, inflating past a bucket.
My best bet: Wings +3.5 (-110 at Caesar’s)
Not intended for use in MA.
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Wings vs Sun spread and Over/Under analysis
This number opened with Connecticut favored by 1.5 at some books, the tardy openers setting it at -2.5. Within a few hours on Thursday night, every book had raised this to -2.5 with the quick fingers charging to -3.5.
That is a decent amount of faith in a Sun squad that went 2-4 ATS in the two weeks before this pause and 3-3 straight-up. One guess would be that faith comes from a week without much gambling. A bored bettor makes for an unsteady bettor.
Then again, beating any opponent twice in a row is difficult, let alone going on the road to notch the second win. Fine, that makes sense.
What doesn’t make sense is this number jumping seven points simply because of travel. The Wings were 3.5-point favorites at home a week ago. They had a slight rest advantage over the Sun, but that should not have added to that pregame spread. The most aggressive home-court advantage number would assign three points to both venues, moving this number by six points. And that would be aggressive.
The seventh point stands out, but anything more than five points would raise an eyebrow. The opening number made far more sense.
The total moved much less, opening at 168.5 before dropping to 167.5 late Thursday night. That tick downward may be a surprise given the aforementioned faith in Ogunbowale and the fact that both teams skew slightly toward the Over. Connecticut has cashed the Over in 17 of 30 games this season, and Dallas has done so in 16 of 30 games.
Wings vs Sun betting trend to know
The Over is 4-0 in Dallas’s last four games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Wings vs. Sun.
Wings vs Sun game info
| Location: | Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT |
| Date: | Friday, August 18, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ION |
Wings vs Sun key injuries
Wings: Lou Lopez Senechal G (Out), Diamond DeShields G (Out).
Sun: Bernadett Hatar C (Probable), Brionna Jones F (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
