One of the WNBA’s best team play host to the league’s worst tonight, and the odds reflect that disparity. With the Aces favored by 17.0 points, is there any chance of the Fever shocking the world?
Maybe not, but focusing one’s bets on the earlier part of the game could keep things interesting. Here are our free WNBA picks and predictions for the Fever vs. Aces on Thursday, July 21, with tip-off set for 10:00 ET.
Fever vs Aces odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Aces opened early Thursday as 16.0-point favorites — a number that ticked as high as -17.5 at some books before settling at -17.0 across the board by mid-morning. The total opened at 174.5, and aside from dabbling at 175.0, it did not move.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full WNBA odds before placing your bets.
Fever vs Aces predictions
Predictions made on 7/21/2022 at 5:00 X.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Fever vs Aces info
• Location: Michelob Ultra Arena, Las Vegas, NV
• Date: Thursday, July 21, 2022
• Tip-off: 10:00 p.m. ET
• TV: NBA TV
Fever vs Aces betting preview
Key injuries
Fever: Lexie Hull G (Questionable).
Aces: No injuries to report.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Fever are 1-5 ATS in its last six road games, all within the last month. Find more WNBA betting trends for Fever vs. Aces.
Fever vs Aces picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
Good luck coming up with a reason to back Indiana. Since May 31, the Fever are 5-13 ATS. It has lost by at least 16 points in eight games this season, including six times in those 18 games since May 31.
Getting blown out that badly and that often should be hard to come by. But when you are last in the league in both scoring average and in defensive rating, those deflating losses become a norm.
For tonight’s context: The Aces have the WNBA’s most explosive offense, averaging 12.9 points per game more than the Fever, and Las Vegas’ defense ranks No. 6 in the league, healthily ahead of Indiana’s cellar-dwelling at No. 12.
Tonight’s -17.0 or -16.5 is a massive spread to cover, but if there is one time in this league capable of falling that far behind, it is clearly the Fever.
Prediction: Aces -16.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
In those habitual Indiana routs, the totals have gone Over only three of eight times. Of those three, none had a total as lofty as tonight.
When Indiana gets blown out, it tends to let the embarrassment unfold unimpeded. They become snoozers ended mercifully by the final horn, one expedited somewhat by lackluster finishes.
Just last week, Indiana lost by 16 on this western road trip, and it scored a mere 65 points despite Seattle having plenty of psychological reasons to ease up with its healthy lead.
Las Vegas has the league’s most entertaining and highest-scoring offense. Taking the Under tonight is not a slight toward the Aces but rather an acknowledgment that the Fever’s apathy will show up in place of pride.
Prediction: Under 175 (-113 at Unibet)
Best bet
Given that the description of tonight's second half may focus more on the formality of finishing rather than competition, wouldn’t you rather find a bet that wraps up your action?
For that matter, do you really want to subject yourself to a few last-minute buckets from the Fever dooming an Aces cover despite the comedy of the final score?
Taking Las Vegas in the first half will resolve the worries sooner, and it will do so more genuinely. There is no reason to think Indiana can keep up with the Aces when they care, and it will early on.
Pick: Aces -9.5 first half (-102 at FanDuel)
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