The Minnesota Lynx are struggling without Napheesa Collier, but their greatest drop-off without the MVP candidate should not be as much of a worry against the Indiana Fever this afternoon. With that in mind, our WNBA picks see value in the depressed spread favoring the home team with title aspirations.
Of course, any Fever vs. Lynx predictions also need to take a look at the Caitlin Clark odds before tip at 4:00 ET on Sunday, July 14.
Fever vs Lynx predictions
My best bet
Lynx -5.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Studying three games warrants some sample-size worries, inarguably, but that is the Minnesota Lynx sample size available without MVP candidate Napheesa Collier this season, as she deals with plantar fasciitis.
Minnesota has survived well enough without Collier, going 2-1 outright, the loss coming in a blowout at Seattle. However, the Lynx are 12.3 points worse in net rating in those three games compared to the first 20 games of their season. No matter the sample size, that kind of shift emphasizes the loss of Collier.
Most of that worry has come offensively, 7.9 points worse in offensive rating (and “just” 4.4 points worse in defensive rating). That is where hope comes in today.
In the last month, Indiana’s defensive rating ranks No. 9 in the WNBA, a significant jump for the Fever given they ranked No. 12 in defensive rating before June 14, that number improving by 7.2 points. Still, that is a lousy defensive rating and a season-long struggle for the young Indiana roster.
That should provide Minnesota a salve today.
And to that end, adjusting the spread by six points for Collier was an overreaction by sportsbooks, an understandable one given how much the Lynx have struggled without her, but a matchup-specific overreaction all the same.
Caitlin Clark odds, prop for tonight
My best bet
Caitlin Clark Over 9.5 assists (-102 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The time will come to stop tailing Caitlin Clark’s playmaking, but until that time is seen, do not do anything but trust her to spread the ball around. Clark has cracked double-digit assists in six of her last seven games, averaging 11.7 assists per game in those seven games.
Do not overthink this any further. So what if Indiana’s offensive rating has hardly climbed in that stretch — 100.1 in 17 games before this assist-driven stretch; 101.2 in these seven games? So what if the Fever have gone 3-4 outright and 4-3 against the spread in this stretch?
Clark has been too consistent in moving the ball around of late to doubt for so much as a moment.
Fever vs Lynx same-game parlay (SGP)
Lynx -6
Caitlin Clark Over 9.5 assists
Under 164.5
First of all, six of Minnesota’s last seven games have gone Under their totals, the exception being a push. Going 0-2-1 to the Under without Collier emphasizes how much the Lynx offense has fallen off without Collier while the defense has, for the most part, managed.
That generally stout defense should slow down Indiana enough to keep this Under the total, even if Clark is moving the ball so well these days.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Fever vs Lynx odds
Fever vs Lynx live odds
Get the latest Fever vs. Lynx WNBA odds for today.
Fever vs Lynx opening odds
- Spread: Indiana +2.5 | Minnesota -2.5
- Moneyline: Indiana +122 | Minnesota -150
- Over/Under: Over 161 | Under 161
Fever vs Lynx spread and Over/Under analysis
- Minnesota opened as only 2.5-point favorites late on Saturday, the spread rising to -5 by Sunday’s sunrise and then to -6 late in the morning.
- Looking at recent common opponents, the Lynx would have been 12.5-point favorites today if looking at spreads before Collier’s injury, but -5.5 or -6 makes sense without her given the respective spreads against Washington in the last couple of weeks.
- The total opened at 161 and climbed steadily to 164.5, further justifying including an Under thought in the SGP, simply by getting the best number available.
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Fever vs Lynx trend
The Lynx are 4-2 ATS this season following a straight-up loss. Find more WNBA betting trends for Fever vs. Lynx.
Fever vs Lynx game info
| Location: | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Sunday, 7-14-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Fever vs Lynx latest injuries
Fever: No key injuries to report.
Lynx: Napheesa Collier F (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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