Las Vegas Aces vs Los Angeles Sparks Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Checked Out Early

The Los Angeles Sparks are heading to the WNBA All-Star Break on quite a tailspin, losing five straight with a sixth quite likely tonight. The Las Vegas Aces are heading to the break, preparing to host the festivities, on a two-game winning streak and winning 11 of their last 12. The question tonight should not be who will win, but can the defending champions rise up to cover a 12.5-point spread?

Here are our free WNBA picks and predictions for the Aces vs the Sparks on July 12, with tip set for 10:00 ET.

Aces vs Sparks best odds

Aces vs Sparks picks and predictions

The Las Vegas Aces righted their ship Tuesday with a 26-point win against the Phoenix Mercury, hardly a tough task but still one that exceeded even bookmakers’ expectations, given they favored Las Vegas by just 17 points. Yes, “just” 17 points.

That made two clear covers and outright wins in a row for the Aces, needed after struggling with the Wings in a two-game series last week. Dallas undid Las Vegas first by winning the turnover battle, 13-8, and second by outrebounding the Aces, 36-25.

In beating Minnesota over the weekend, the Aces won both those box-score indicators. Beating Phoenix last night, they forced nine turnovers while giving up only three and were within one rebound entering the fourth quarter with a 27-point lead before the Mercury snagged two more boards in the final frame to create an optically-worrisome 38-35 gap.

Yes, the Lynx and the Mercury are some of the league’s worst teams, but so are the Los Angeles Sparks. The Sparks are the second-worst team in the league in grabbing rebounds, ahead of only Phoenix, and gives up the second-most rebounds per 100 possessions in the league, while Las Vegas ranks No. 2 in opponent rebounds.

The Aces’ only struggles in a month should not be a worry against the Sparks.

But, a 12.5-point spread just before a week off could be a problem. If ever there was a moment for a fourth-quarter scoreboard letdown, it would be tonight.

In fact, that feels even likely. And if it is, then one thing should come with it: the Under.

The Aces are going to let up tonight once they are well ahead. It will be only human. And in doing so, the offense will suffer. This total of 169.5 is tilted toward Las Vegas. The Aces may be only a 12-8 team toward their Overs, but their last 10 games have averaged pregame totals of 170.9. The Sparks’ last 10 games have averaged pregame totals of 160.6.

A total this high tonight is betting on Las Vegas putting the pedal to the metal for the full 40 minutes, but a blowout will allow the Aces to ease into the party in their hometown, starting perhaps with a night on the prowl in Los Angeles. Letting up like that will create a mundane fourth quarter and an Under opportunity.

My best bet: Under 169.5 (-110 at Fanduel)

Aces vs Sparks spread and Over/Under analysis

The Aces opened as 14-point favorites early this morning, a number bet down as low as -11.5 by midmorning before bouncing back to -12.5. Some of that should tie to this being the second night of a back-to-back, and some of it should be from thinking similar to the Under thought above: If ever there was a night for a backdoor cover, it is tonight.

A note: Anyone touting stats of how Las Vegas has fared on the second nights of back-to-backs is selling you a bill of goods. The Aces have had exactly one such occasion in the last two-plus years. The WNBA has plenty of scheduling flaws, but it does not lean on back-to-backs to fit in its season.

Las Vegas has been a double-digit favorite in every game but three this year, going 10-7 in them. These significant spreads do not doom the Aces from a betting perspective.

Plus, the Sparks have been woeful against the spread for the last month, going 2-8 ATS in their last 10, dating back to June 15. Those eight ATS losses have come by an average of 11 points compared to pregame spreads. If considering the Aces to cover tonight, an alternate spread may be worth investigating.

This total has moved from 169.5 to 170.5 and back to 169.5. Only three of Los Angeles’s last 11 games would have cleared this total.

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Aces vs Sparks betting trend to know

The Sparks are 0-5 ATS in their last five games, falling short of bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 12.1 points. Find more WNBA betting trends for Aces vs. Sparks.

Aces vs Sparks game info

Aces vs Sparks key injuries

Aces: Candace Parker F (Questionable), Riquna Williams G (Out).
Sparks: Dearica Hamby F (Probable), Karlie Samuelson G (Questionable), Chiney Ogwumike F (Out)
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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