Los Angeles Sparks vs Atlanta Dream Prediction, Picks, and Odds: L.A.'s New Rotation Keeps Shining

Apparently, the Los Angeles Sparks feel like making the playoffs. Who knew? A five-game winning streak suddenly has them as the No. 8 seed, and a win tonight against the Atlanta Dream would push the Sparks into a tie with the Washington Mystics for the No. 7 seed, just half a game behind Atlanta.

With only a couple weeks left in the WNBA season, Los Angeles could end up with a decent chance at seeing the first round of the playoffs, even after spending most of the season among the league’s worst. But first, the Sparks will need to top the Dream.

Here are our free WNBA picks and predictions for the Sparks vs. the Dream on August 25, with tip set for 8:00 ET.

Sparks vs Dream best odds

Sparks vs Dream picks and predictions

The Sparks have done more than just win five straight games. They’ve rattled off nine straight against-the-spread wins, clearing the bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 9.4 points per game.

More absurdly, that average has only been getting bigger. Bookmakers are not catching up to Los Angeles. In this five-game winning streak, the Sparks have beaten the spread by an average of 14.2 points per game. In the two wins since the long Commissioner’s Cup pause, Los Angeles has cleared the spread by 22.5 points and 18 points.

This handicapper is fond of reminding folks that no team is as good or as bad as its most recent game, most recent week, most recent two weeks. Regression comes for us all, be it for the better or the worse. But what to make of a full month of this kind of surge?

The Sparks were 7-14-2 ATS before this began. Their previous nine games were an abysmal 0-8-1 ATS stretch, made worse by being 1-8 outright. Let’s dig into that a touch.

Los Angeles ranked last in the league with 94 points per 100 possessions from June 27 to July 26, second-to-last with a 31.9% three-point rate while shooting a league-worst 22.3 threes per 100 possessions. Only two teams grabbed fewer rebounds per 100 possessions.

Opponents were scoring 108.3 points per 100 possessions, No. 10 in the 12-team WNBA. They were hitting 36.4% of their threes (No. 9), though fortunately not taking all that many of them. And only two teams gave up more rebounds per 100 possessions than the Sparks.

Now this is a real-time handicap. Those numbers were pulled as usual benchmarks of a team’s failure or success. It is only assumed the nine-game surge will show complete opposites.

Not complete opposites, but the defensive differences stand out.

The primary offensive change is that Los Angeles began hitting threes, making 38.0% of them since July 26, good for No. 2 in the league. The Sparks are not taking notably more (22.8 per 100 possessions), but that uptick in conversions explains scoring 103.1 points per 100 possessions, No. 6 in the league.

Defensively, though, Los Angeles has ranked No. 1 in points against since July 26. More than that, it has given up only 95.1 points per 100 possessions, 4.9 points better than the No. 3 team in the league. The Sparks’ opponents are shooting worse from deep than any other team’s opponents while taking 30.6 of them per 100 possessions, second-most in the league, up from 25.2 attempts per 100 possessions during that elongated struggle.

This is not meant to sound harsh. Rather, a thorough look at this next thought would make this handicap longer than the editorial desk would rationally allow. Simply enough, Los Angeles tightened its rotation.

In the ugly nine-game stretch, only one three-player lineup logged more than 100 minutes together. Only three others notched more than 80 minutes together. Only one three-player lineup with at least 75 minutes together had a positive net rating — Nneka Ogwumike, Layshia Clarendon, and Jordin Canada with a +12.9 per 100 possessions in 89 minutes together.

In the surprising nine-game stretch, seven Sparks three-player lineups have notched more than 140 minutes playing together. Four of them were not among the top-eight three-player lineups from the losing stretch in terms of playing time. All seven most-used three-player lineups these days have a net rating of at least +7.5 per 100 possessions, with five of them north of +11.0 and Ogwumike, Clarendon, and Canada at +10.5 in 186 minutes together, the most minutes of any three-player lineup. Yes, they have more than doubled their time together in an equal nine-game stretch.

Tightening a rotation is a sustainable change. It is a reason to believe in Los Angeles until further notice and quite possibly into the playoffs.

My best bet: Sparks -1.5 (-115 at BetMGM)

Sparks vs Dream spread and Over/Under analysis

That -1.5 at BetMGM exists as of 3:30 a.m. ET on Friday. It may move, as most of the board has moved from -1.5 to -2 with some sportsbooks already moving to -2.5. As long as it stays within a bucket, it’s a small enough move to believe in.

Part of how Los Angeles has found itself in playoff position is the teams falling off ahead and around it, including the Dream. Atlanta is 4-10 outright and 5-9 ATS since July 18, including losses in both accords to the Mercury, the Storm and, yes, the Sparks.

Los Angeles did n’t shoot the lights out in that Aug. 12 win, hitting only 5 of 15 threes. No, the success was once again defensive, holding the Dream to 4 of 23 from deep and 40% overall. That kind of defensive showcase should repeat itself.

And it should engender belief in the Under, with the board currently offering 163.5, though books are hinting toward dropping it toward 162.5.

Sparks vs Dream betting trend to know

Los Angeles’s charge has included seven of nine games going Under their totals. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sparks vs. Dream.

Sparks vs Dream game info

Sparks vs Dream key injuries

Sparks: Chiney Ogwumike F (Out), Lexie Brown G (Out), Nia Clouden G (Out).
Dream: Nia Coffey F (Out), Allisha Gray G (Questionable).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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