The Las Vegas Aces never stopped pushing for the No. 1 seed this season, needing a win on the final day of the regular season to seal homecourt advantage throughout the playoffs. Las Vegas’ reward? A visit from the Phoenix Mercury. A playoff team perhaps in name only, as Phoenix continues to scuffle amid roster uncertainty even as the postseason begins.
Here are our free WNBA picks and predictions for the Mercury vs. Aces on August 17.
Mercury vs Aces Game 1 odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Aces opened as 14-point favorites on Monday morning, and that reached -15 by midafternoon. Tuesday night, that spread dropped back down to -14.5, the largest spread in the four Game 1s by more than a bucket. The total hardly budged, opening at 168.5 at some books and 167.5 at the rest before the higher openers fell so the entire board reads 167.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full WNBA odds before placing your bets.
Mercury vs Aces Game 1 predictions
Predictions made on 8/17/2022 at 11:40 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for the WNBA, here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users can get a no-sweat first bet (up to $1,000) at FanDuel! Sign Up Now
B) New users can get two risk-free bets up to $2,000 at PointsBet! Claim Now
*Eligible USA locations only
Mercury vs Aces info
• Location: Michelob Ultra Arena, Las Vegas, NV
• Date: Wednesday, August 17, 2022
• Tip-off: 10:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Mercury vs Aces series odds
Mercury: +1,000
Aces: -2,000
Key injuries
Mercury: Kaela Davis F (Questionable), Skylar Diggins-Smith G (Out), Diana Taurasi G (Out), Kia Nurse G (Out), Brittney Griner C (Out).
Aces: Dearica Hamby F (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Mercury are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mercury vs. Aces.
Mercury vs Aces Game 1 picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
Las Vegas built its success this season on its offense, leading the WNBA in scoring by 4.1 points. The gap between the Aces’ per game output and No. 2 was more than the gap between No. 2 in the league and No. 6.
At its best, Las Vegas rains threes. The Aces led the league by shooting 36.1% from beyond the arc, and their 9.5 made threes per game was just a notch behind New York.
That offense could not have found a better matchup to begin the postseason. The Mercury had the second-worst 3-point defense in the league. Opponents made 36.6% of their threes against Phoenix.
When one team’s greatest strength is scoring in the most efficient way possible, and that happens to be its opponent’s greatest weakness, suddenly a spread of two touchdowns does not seem so large.
Prediction: Aces -14.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Over/Under analysis
The Mercury are not afraid to chuck their own threes, they just don't make them at the same prolific rate. Taking 26.7 shots from beyond the arc per game was the second most in the league — even ahead of Las Vegas — but Phoenix makes only 32.9% of those attempts.
However, the Aces gave up a 35.6 opponent shooting percentage on threes, third worst in the league.
The No. 8 seed will be heaving from deep early and often in hopes of catching fire — there is a pun here somewhere about rising mercury — to keep pace with the Aces.
Two teams that combine to give up more than 50 points per game from three and combine to score even more than that will fit right into each other’s game plans for a high-scoring evening.
Prediction: Over 167.5 (-110 at Caesars)
Best bet
Threes create variance. As this game opens up, they could skew the final margin. Who wants to stay up late to watch a backdoor cover spurred by meaningless fourth-quarter chucks?
Let’s instead put faith in Las Vegas being focused from the outset. Years of Bill Laimbeer insisting on an outdated offense kept the Aces from winning a title by the slimmest of margins. It lost in the conference finals last year and in the WNBA Finals the year before. In 2019, another conference finals loss.
Las Vegas knows what is at stake. It knows how close it has come to a title. There should be an aggravation beneath the surface with the Aces until a trophy is raised.
That aggravation should create a first-half focus on all facets tonight, both offensively and defensively. Maybe that latter thought lapses in the closing minutes of the game, but in the first half, a rout could commence.
Pick: Aces first half -8.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Did you know that if you parlayed today’s WNBA Mercury vs. Aces predictions and picks in a single-game parlay, you could win $59.58 on a $10 bet?
Use our WNBA parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
