The win was nice, but can the Atlanta Dream do it twice?
Atlanta will try to sweep both ends of a two-game set, and our Mercury vs. Dream predictions think they’ll give themselves a great shot despite being 3-point home dogs in the WNBA odds.
Check out our Mercury vs Dream preview for Friday, August 23’s free WNBA picks.
Mercury vs Dream predictions
My best bet
Dream +3 (-110 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The Atlanta Dream closed to within a game of the Chicago Sky, who currently hold the eighth and final playoff spot in the league, with a 72-63 win over the Mercury Wednesday night.
Since returning from that extended in-season break, the Dream have ripped off three straight, with the points against cascading downwards across that stretch.
The 63 points allowed against the Phoenix Mercury were the fewest they’ve given up in any game this season, but how does a team find a W when shooting just 34.2% from the field and 29% from 3-point range?
In its simplest form, Atlanta was able to dominate the rebounding battle, finishing +14 on the glass, and dominating the offensive rebounding numbers with 16 to the Mercury’s three.
That resulted in 12 more field goals attempted and six more free throws taken.
A Top-4 scoring unit that usually averages 83.3 points per game, the Mercury will try to rebound after posting their third-lowest offensive output on the season.
Ranked the fifth-best 3-point shooting team in the W, they were held to just 6-for-19 from 3-point range, part of a 39.3% shooting night overall from the field.
Phoenix will also have to try to clean up its act on the glass. The Mercury are the only team in the league surrendering double-digit offensive rebounds at 10.1 per contest.
Atlanta has now won four straight home games against Phoenix, two of those (including the most recent) as moneyline underdogs.
They’re also quite resilient in the underdog role: the Dream’s record against the spread as 2.5-point underdog or more is a fantastic 11-6.
Atlanta is currently playing its best basketball of the season, and we’ll stay with the Dream to stay hot until they’re bumped off this run.
Mercury vs Dream same-game parlay (SGP)
Dream +3
Diana Taurasi Over 3.5 assists
Rhyne Howard Over 2.5 3-point makes
Wednesday was the worst game of Diana Taurasi’s season, as the 42-year-old finished with three points on 1-for-6 shooting in 30 minutes of work.
While her offensive game fell off a cliff, her passing work is still there, finishing with four dimes and given a very reachable 3.5-assist line Friday.
Taurasi has crossed this line five times in her last seven games, and failed to reach four assists just three times in her last 14. Of those off-nights, two were an assist short of eclipsing the total. Which is all to say, no need to worry about Taurasi’s scoring, which can come and go, but to focus on her assists, which have been far more consistent.
We’ll wrap with Atlanta guard Rhyne Howard, who finished with 19 points in the win over Phoenix. That included a four threes in the outing.
Howard’s 3-point make line is 2.5 in the rematch, and it’s a figure she’s bested in two out of three games out of the break, missing a third by a lone moneyball.
She’s already gone Over the total in two games against the Mercury this season, and if she continues to average 10 3-point attempts per game like she has in her last three, she should eclipse this figure again.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mercury vs Dream odds
Mercury vs Dream live odds
Get the latest Mercury vs Dream WNBA odds for tonight.
Mercury vs Dream opening odds
- Spread: Phoenix -3 (-110) | Atlanta +3 (-110)
- Moneyline: Phoenix -148 | Atlanta +120
- Over/Under: Over 163 (-110) | Under 163 (-110)
Mercury vs Dream spread and Over/Under analysis
- The teams have alternated wins and losses in five straight games.
- Atlanta is 6-2 against the spread vs Phoenix in the last eight.
- Phoenix has gone Under the total in three of its last four.
- The Under has cashed in four of the last six meetings.
Mercury vs Dream trend
Phoenix is 8-5 ATS as 2.5-point favorites or more. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mercury vs. Dream.
Mercury vs Dream game info
| Location: | Gateway Center Arena, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Friday, 8-23-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ION |
Mercury vs Dream latest injuries
Mercury: Charisma Osborne G (Out); Rebecca Allen G (out).
Dream: Cheyenne Parker-Tyus F (Out); Aerial Powers G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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