Minnesota Lynx vs Connecticut Sun Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Flying Too Close to the Sun

The Minnesota Lynx have overcome an 0-6 start and injuries to their best players to climb into the top half of the WNBA standings, but has this charge been more smoke and mirrors than reality?

They just beat the Connecticut Sun, a Top-3 team, and the Sun will be looking for revenge tonight in the second half of this two-game series. Will the Sun expose the Lynx for what they really are, or is Minnesota’s surge going to continue?

Here are our free WNBA picks and predictions for the Lynx vs the Sun on August 1, with the tip set for 7:00 ET.

Lynx vs Sun best odds

Lynx vs Sun picks and predictions

No team is as good or as bad as its most recent game. If there is any gambling axiom that should be remembered, it is that one. In simpler terms: Bet against recency bias.

Recently, the Lynx have looked like the best team in the WNBA east of Las Vegas. Minnesota beat Washington, New York, and Connecticut in three straight games across the last week. For that matter, the Lynx covered the spread in each of those games by an average of 12.2 points.

Is this sustainable? It would be hard to believe so, particularly not with star forward Napheesa Collier sidelined for at least the next week or so.

In those three wins, Minnesota hit 51.2% of its field goals and outrebounded its opponents by plus-4.

But remember, no team is as good as its most recent game. For the sake of fairness, let’s also remove the Lynx’s 0-6 start. In the remaining 17 games, Minnesota shot 42.9% while getting outrebounded by 0.7 rebounds per 100 possessions.

That 8.3% jump from the field is outlandish and the piece of this that all but assures the Lynx will crash back to earth. Will that be tonight? Again, Collier’s absence looms large and suggests yes, it will be tonight.

Minnesota beat Connecticut 87-83 on Sunday, a noteworthy upset given the Lynx were 12.5-point underdogs. The Sun were woeful from deep, going just 3 of 17. That has not been a theme of this Minnesota hot streak, with the Mystics and the Liberty combining to go 18 of 56 from deep (32.1%).

Assume Connecticut reverts to form, particularly as a team hitting 35.6% of its threes this season, No. 5 in the league. Even though the Sun do not chuck from deep often, they usually take more than just 17 threes in a game, averaging 19.6 attempts. If Connecticut had made its usual seven shots from range, it would have theoretically won by eight on Sunday.

No, that is not how life works, but the point is the Sun would likely win that game far more often than not, even with the Lynx playing over their heads.

Yet, tonight’s spread fell to -11.5, with some books offering as low as -10.5, compared to Sunday’s -12.5 in favor of Connecticut.

If no team is as bad as its most recent game, then the Sun should hit more from deep tonight. And since no team is as good as its most recent game, the time has come for the Collier-less Lynx to cool off.

Betting against those recent trends and bookmakers’ overreactions to Sunday feels like one of the more obvious choices of the summer.

My best bet: Sun -10.5 (-110 at Caesars)

Lynx vs Sun spread and Over/Under analysis

This total sits at 161.5, comparable to Sunday’s 161 despite that game cruising to 170 points while Connecticut did not carry its weight offensively. If the Sun hit those threes tonight, then this game should blow past 161.5.

High-scoring games have been the other consistent piece of Minnesota’s recent improvements, with four straight games going Over their totals. The Lynx are winning with shotmaking, not defense.

Both teams typically play to the Over — Connecticut hitting the Over in 15 of 25 games this season and Minnesota doing so in 14 of 26 — furthering this thought.

This will be their fourth meeting of the season, and in addition to Sunday’s Over, the previous two games split the total, though looking closer reveals this trend toward the Over is wholly valid. The first meeting of the season cruised past the total by 13.5 points, while the second fell short of it by all of one point.

In that latter moment, the Sun scored 89 points. Leading by 24 points entering the fourth quarter doomed that night’s total more than any longer-term trend or habit.

Lynx vs Sun betting trend to know

The Over is 8-1 in Connecticut’s last nine home games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Lynx vs. Sun.

Lynx vs Sun game info

Lynx vs Sun key injuries

Lynx: Napheesa Collier F (Out), Rachel Banham G (Out), Natalie Achonwa F (Out).
Sun: Brionna Jones F (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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