Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Don't Let Lynx Go at Square Odds

The Minnesota Lynx might be the hottest team in the WNBA, yet they are underdogs on the road against the worst team in the league, the Phoenix Mercury. But part of the Mercury’s dive for the bottom of the standings was driven by the absences of star veterans Diana Taurasi and Brittney Griner. With both back in the lineup, is Phoenix good enough to deserve that favorite’s status in the WNBA odds?

Here are our free WNBA picks and predictions for Lynx vs Mercury on July 1.

Lynx vs Mercury best odds

Lynx vs Mercury picks and predictions

When Diana Taurasi and Brittney Griner missed three games in the middle of June, it looked like the Phoenix Mercury might be embarking on an all-out tank campaign this season. Without them, along with guard Skylar Diggins-Smith sidelined thus far into the year and perhaps for its entirety, the Mercury roster lacks much star power.

No offense to Sophie Cunningham, Michaela Onyenwere, or Moriah Jefferson, but there is not another career All-Star appearance on the Phoenix roster when Taurasi, Griner, and Diggins-Smith are not active.

Unsurprisingly, those three games resulted in three losses for the Mercury, both straight-up and against the spread. Losing those games outright was hardly a surprise — Phoenix was at least an 11.5-point underdog in each game, facing three of the league’s top-four teams — but losing to each inflated spread, as well, spoke to how bad the Mercury was without the pair of star veterans.

Their returns have helped, but only somewhat. Phoenix proceeded to lose its next two games, again both straight-up and against the spread. The games featured far closer pregame spreads against far more beatable foes, before routing Indiana on Thursday.

The Mercury are better with Taurasi and Griner, obviously, but could it be that Phoenix is just bad both with and without them?

Facing the red-hot Minnesota Lynx may not offer a genuine answer. Minnesota began the season 0-5 before rattling off six wins in its last 10 games. For gambling concerns, the Lynx began the year 0-4 ATS before going 8-3 ATS since. This team has figured it out and figured it out quickly, with most of “it” being “give the ball to Napheesa Collier.”

Collier has averaged 25.3 points and 8.6 rebounds in her last 10 games, including hitting a game-winning overtime jumper on Thursday. For a bit, her player props were clear and readily available value, but now her points prop is up to 23.5, and her rebounds prop is set at 9.5, though juiced to the Under. Evaluating those on a game-by-game basis has become a tricky endeavor.

Trusting the Lynx, however, may not be that tricky. With an exploding star leading them against a team that is just bad, no matter who is in the lineup, the Lynx offer value tonight as an underdog. Minnesota has been red hot, while the only success Phoenix has enjoyed in nearly a month has come against the young Fever.

My best bet: Lynx moneyline (+105 at DraftKings)

Lynx vs Mercury spread and Over/Under analysis

This number opened with Phoenix favored by 3 or 3.5 late Friday night, a number that was bet down to -1.5 by the time even the early birds on the East Coast had gotten to their morning coffees. Instinctively, that speaks to bettors giving Taurasi and Griner less credit than bookmakers do. And the results thus far this season would agree with the bettors.

All that said, why favor the Mercury at all? First of all, home-court advantage. Secondly, Collier played 45 minutes in that overtime win on Thursday. Kayla McBride played more than 40, as well, scoring 19 points and grabbing six rebounds. In the WNBA more than any other league, thanks to its irrational fear of charter flights, travel fatigue compounds game fatigue.

The total opened at 162.5 before falling to 160.5 by midmorning Saturday, an acknowledgment that both these teams veer toward the Under. The Lynx have hit the Under in nine of their 15 games this season, while the Mercury have done so in seven of their 14 with one push (3-6-1 O/U last 10 games). 

Lynx vs Mercury betting trend to know

The Lynx are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games, a stretch dating back to May 30. Minnesota was an underdog in all six of those games, winning four of them outright. Find more WNBA betting trends for Lynx vs. Mercury.

Lynx vs Mercury game info

Lynx vs Mercury key injuries

Lynx: Jessica Shepard F (Out), Natalie Achonwa F (Out), Aerial Powers G (Out)
Mercury: Shey Peddy G (Questionable), Moriah Jefferson G (Questionable), Sophie Cunningham G (Questionable)
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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