Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Phoenix Snags First Win of Season

Neither the Minnesota Lynx nor the Phoenix Mercury have impressed early this season.

The Lynx lost twice as home favorites and the Mercury matched that with a blowout loss to open the season, followed by their own loss at home as a favorite. One of these underwhelming starts will have to improve tonight, but I'm happy to tell you it's quite obvious which one of these teams has more upside — and WNBA odds seem to agree.

Here are my free WNBA picks for the Lynx vs. Mercury on May 25.

Lynx vs Mercury best odds

Lynx vs Mercury picks and predictions

The Minnesota Lynx probably aren't tanking, but if they were, this is what it would look like. The Lynx competed with the Chicago Sky for only the first quarter of the season opener, getting outscored 22-3 in the second frame. That was not a typo: Minnesota scored just three points in the second quarter of its season opener.

Then the Lynx led the Dream by 17 late in the third quarter on Tuesday, only to be outscored 36-13 in the game’s final 13:45. Mull that over for a moment: at home, scoring less than a point per minute over a lengthy closing stretch.

This is a team without fight. This is a team missing one of its few veteran mainstays, forward Natalie Achonwa, the year after the retirement of its last dynasty holdover, center Sylvia Fowles.

The Phoenix Mercury are not adrift, just starting sluggishly. The return of Brittney Griner was rightfully trumpeted, but there has clearly been a readjustment to playing with her for Phoenix. Her mainstay, legend Diana Taurasi, has not needed a learning curve, averaging 15.5 points and 5.5 assists in two games thus far, but the rest of the Mercury roster has largely struggled through two games.

The difference between Phoenix and Minnesota, though, is that the Mercury roster has proven talents simply looking to find their groove. Four of Phoenix’s starting five have been in the league for at least four years, including guard Moriah Jefferson, who is in her seventh season after spending most of last year with the Lynx.

Minnesota, meanwhile, has three players in the first three (healthy) years of their professional careers, with Lindsay Allen overcoming a hamstring injury now in her fourth healthy campaign.

The Mercury core has a proven track record. The Lynx collective does not, and their collapses this last week underscore that.

Phoenix falling to the Sky on Sunday was not a wretched showing. Chicago is led by a star in Kaleah Copper. Minnesota has no player that can match her these days, and thus Griner, Taurasi & Co. should accelerate their learning curve tonight.

My best bet: Mercury -3 (-110 at Caesars)

Lynx vs Mercury spread and Over/Under analysis

This spread opened Wednesday afternoon with Phoenix favored by 2.5, jumping up to -3.0 or -3.5 depending on your book. Frankly, that movement was less than this handicapper expected.

Those losses — let’s reiterate this: Minnesota was a home favorite in both its games thus far — have given an idea of how bad the Lynx could be this year, but the extreme nature of this definitely-not-a-tank has not yet been realized.

This may sound dramatic, but if Minnesota does not find an upset tonight, it could be looking for its first win well into June. After tonight, the Lynx should be multiple-bucket underdogs in every game between now and June 9, with the likely exception of a road game at Dallas on Tuesday.

That does not have any impact on tonight’s result, but it is something to keep in mind as those two opening collapses could snowball into a Minnesota meltdown.

This total opened at 158.5 and ticked upward to 161.5 or 162.0. The initial number may have been an overreaction to the Lynx's shooting thus far, making just 27.3% of their threes and 39.2% from the field through two games, but the subsequent move to 162.0 is overlooking a WNBA trend thus far this season. Unders have cashed in seven of 11 games to date, those seven games falling short of their totals by an average of 14.4 points.

Lynx vs Mercury betting trend to know

Minnesota’s shooting woes have led to the Under cashing in both its games this year, even against pregame totals that were modest to start with at 162.5 and 162.0. Find more WNBA betting trends for Lynx vs. Mercury.

Lynx vs Mercury game info

Lynx vs Mercury key injuries

Lynx: Lindsay Allen G (Probable), Natalie Achonwa F (Out).
Mercury: Shey Peddy G (Out), Megan Gustafson C (Questionable), Skylar Diggins-Smith G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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