Doubting the Indiana Fever may be in vogue, but it may also be the prudent approach against the Washington Mystics. When pondering any Mystics vs. Fever predictions, considering Caitlin Clark’s recent struggles furthers belief in the Mystics.
Our free WNBA picks will back Washington before tip on Wednesday, June 19.
Mystics vs Fever predictions
My best bet
Mystics +5.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Despite currently sitting in playoff position at No. 8 in the WNBA — and yes, it is much too soon to speculate about playoff chances — the Indiana Fever are dead-last in net rating. Worse yet, the second-lowest ranked team — the Washington Mystics — are 4.7 points better per 100 possessions. The Mystics are nearly as close to the No. 7 net rating as they are to the Fever at No. 12.
That has not shown up in the standings, with Washington going 2-12 straight-up and sitting dead-last in the WNBA. But some of that struggle has come from scheduling as the Mystics have played the Top 4 teams in the standings a total of seven times, going 0-7 outright.
The Fever have played those teams a total of eight times, going 0-8 outright.
These distinctions matter. Those four teams — the Sun, Liberty, Lynx, and Storm by standings and Sun, Lynx, Liberty, and Storm by net rating — are far and away better than the rest of the WNBA. Seattle’s net rating of +5.6 is 4.4 points better than No. 5, the Aces. The difference between the Aces and No. 7 is less than that.
So look at how Indiana and Washington have fared against the seven other teams in the WNBA that are far from elite. The Fever have a -2 point differential in those seven games despite going 5-2 outright, while the Mystics break even in point differential in their seven games despite going 2-5 outright.
Very basic metrics like net ratings and point differentials are more informative than win-loss records. Trusting them suggests Washington is better than Indiana.
When playing in Indianapolis, the Fever should still be favored, but not by this much.
Caitlin Clark odds, prop for tonight
My best bet
Caitlin Clark Under 2.5 made 3s (+118 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Caitlin Clark was not exactly setting the world afire to start the season, but she did go 24 of 75 (32%) from deep in her first nine games, clearing this prop in five of them.
Since then, she has cracked this prop just twice in six games. One of those, though, was against these same Mystics on June 7, going 7 of 13 from deep.
In her five other games this month, Clark has shot just 9-for-34 (26.5%) from beyond the arc. It may be fatigue, it may be better scouting. Whatever it is, Clark has fallen off.
Furthermore, Washington defends the arc well, ranking No. 8 in the WNBA in 3-pointers attempted against per game.
Clark exploding two weeks ago was an anomaly, as was the Mystics getting exploited from deep. That should not happen again.
Mystics vs Fever same-game parlay (SGP)
Mystics +5.5
Caitlin Clark Under 2.5 made 3s
Over 167.5
The Fever are undone by their defense, worst in the WNBA by 5.7 points per 100 possessions. The difference between No. 11 and the Fever is less than the difference between No. 11 and No. 5. Indiana’s defense will be considered historically bad by season’s end.
The Mystics’ offense struggles, but it is not as disastrously bad as the Fever’s defense is. Indiana may make Washington look competent offensively, which should be enough to crack this total.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mystics vs Fever odds
Mystics vs Fever live odds
Get the latest Mystics vs Fever WNBA odds for tonight.
Mystics vs Fever opening odds
- Spread: Washington +4.5 | Indiana -4.5
- Moneyline: Washington +171 | Indiana -199
- Over/Under: Over 166 | Under 166
Mystics vs Fever spread and Over/Under analysis
- This line has run counter to these thoughts, opening on Monday night with Indiana favored by 4.5 points, a number that even slipped to -4 on Tuesday afternoon before rallying to -5.5 on Wednesday afternoon. If nothing else, this best bet is catching the best number available.
- Indiana is only 7-8 against the spread, while Washington is 8-5-1 ATS.
- This total opened at 166.5 and held steady until climbing to 167 on Wednesday morning before steadying at 167.5.
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Mystics vs Fever trend
The Over has cashed in five straight Fever games and by an average of 5.2 points per game. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mystics vs. Fever.
Mystics vs Fever game info
| Location: | Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date: | Wednesday, 6-19-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBA TV, Monument |
Mystics vs Fever latest injuries
Mystics: B. Sykes (Out), S. Austin (Out).
Fever: T. Fagbenle (Out), D. Dantas (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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