Little separates the Washington Mystics and Seattle Storm, aside from a few thousand miles of travel. That may be Seattle’s biggest advantage tonight in its playoff opener as this 4-5 matchup should be the closest of the first round.
Here are our free WNBA picks and predictions for the Mystics vs. Storm on Thursday, August 18.
Mystics vs Storm Game 1 odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Storm opened as a 3-point favorite on Monday morning, and that ticked upward to -3.5 by Monday’s lunchtime and eventually found -4.0 at most books by late Tuesday — with the stragglers catching up by Wednesday afternoon. The total seemed to move along with the spread, opening at 157.5 on Monday and finding its way to 159 by late Wednesday..
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full WNBA odds before placing your bets.
Mystics vs Storm Game 1 predictions
Predictions made on 8/18/2022 at 2:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Mystics vs Storm info
• Location: Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle, WA
• Date: Thursday, August 18, 2022
• Tip-off: 10:00 p.m. ET
• TV: TBD
Mystics vs Storm series odds
Mystics: +135
Storm : -165
Mystics vs Storm betting preview
Key injuries
Mystics: Tianna Hawkins F (Questionable), Natasha Cloud G (Probable), Myisha Hines-Allen F (Probable).
Storm: Mercedes Russell C (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Mystics are 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings between these two, with three of those coming within the last two months. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mystics vs. Storm.
Mystics vs Storm Game 1 picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
What does separate Seattle and Washington, aside from that seven-hour flight? Mainly, their shooting from deep.
The Storm shot 36.1% from beyond the arc this season — best in the league — while taking 25.6 threes per game. The Mystics ranked No. 10 in the WNBA in 3-point shooting percentage at an ugly 33.8% while taking a meager 22.5 threes per game.
Seattle does not entirely lean on threes to score 82.5 points per game, but they are how the Storm gapped many opponents this season.
Washington, meanwhile, had the league’s best defense by defensive rating. Note, however, that was not mentioned right away as something that separates these two, as the Storm ranked third in defensive rating.
The Mystics cannot match Seattle in its greatest strength, particularly not given the Storm’s opponents shot just 32% deep — the worst in the league. But Seattle can largely match Washington’s greatest strength, its defense.
Along with the travel and the road environment, that should spell out a Storm cover, and I'm not talking about the weather.
Prediction: Storm -4 (-110 at Caesars)
Over/Under analysis
The bookmakers may be overreacting to these two good defenses. Yes, they are good in every respect. The easiest way to describe them is that they both gave up only a 48.5 effective shooting percentage. There is no need to argue the quality of that.
But this total is still too low, even after the bucket’s jump from its opening number.
In its last five games, the pregame total facing Washington averaged 160.8. The comparative Seattle number is 165.7.
A competitive game with these stakes could create plenty of free-throw opportunities late, but even without those, there is reason to think this total should be higher by another bucket yet.
Prediction: Over 159 (-110 at DraftKings)
Best bet
This is only a cowardly play if Seattle absolutely blows out Washington, and even then, grading a handicap’s logic retroactively on the result is always an endeavor designed to criticize.
This spread is short enough, the favorite’s money line presents value. The Storm are the better team and are assuredly intent on finding one last playoff run for Sue Bird, but those facts may not create more than a close win.
Betting this money line allows a close win to be a profitable moment. It is a slow sports night in mid-August. Your bankroll should be able to afford the added outlay for a couple late-night hours.
Pick: Storm moneyline (-175 at DraftKings)
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