New York Liberty vs Atlanta Dream Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Parker Crashes the Glass With Authority

Do not doubt the Atlanta Dream tonight just because they are playing the superstar-laden New York Liberty. When these two met in the Big Apple 10 days ago, the Dream rallied to a seven-point win despite being 9.5-point underdogs. Can they repeat that upset tonight?

Here are our free WNBA picks and predictions for the Liberty vs the Dream on June 23, with tip set for 7:30 ET.

Liberty vs Dream best odds

Liberty vs Dream picks and predictions

The last game between these two clubs on June 13 should yield only so much information for evaluating tonight’s matchup. That was just one game. A quarter-season’s worth of data warrants more attention. As does the general advantage enjoyed by the New York Liberty roster talent.

Nonetheless, the Atlanta Dream won 10 days ago, the first of three straight wins for Atlanta as underdog of 9.5 points, 8.5 points and then as mere one-point favorites at Indiana.

Against the Liberty, Atlanta most relied on offensive rebounds, grabbing 13, to overcome shooting 44 percent overall and just 8-of-24 from deep. That showed up not only in points but also in some fatigue as the Dream outscored the Liberty by seven points in the fourth quarter which was ultimately the winning margin.

That should be entirely replicable for Atlanta. The Dream rank No. 4 in the WNBA by grabbing 10.2 offensive rebounds per 100 possessions, while the Liberty give up 11.6 offensive boards per 100 possessions, third-most in the league behind, oddly, the Dream and the cellar-dwelling Phoenix Mercury.

That surprising aspect of Atlanta also giving up offensive boards should not be much of a worry tonight, since New York ranks only No. 7 in the league in pursuing them.

Veteran Dream forward Cheyenne Parker averages 7.7 rebounds per game, and with her prop set at Over 7.5, one might think there is little room to attack. But that prop is juiced to the Over. Even if Parker has grabbed only 15 rebounds in her last three games, the correct attitude to take tonight is to think that lull created value. This prop was depleted by tracking down just two boards at Connecticut a week ago, her lowest rebounding tally in a month. Remove both that outlier and the upper-end outlier of 14 rebounds, also against Connecticut, two weeks ago, and Parker has averaged eight rebounds per game in her other seven games in the last month.

Against a team ripe to give up offensive rebounds, Parker’s prop tonight brings positive-money value.

My best bet: Cheyenne Parker Over 7.5 rebounds (+100 at FanDuel)

Liberty vs Dream spread and Over/Under analysis

This line has inched toward Atlanta after opening with New York favored by 8.5 points on Thursday night. As of early Friday afternoon, it sits at -7.5. Just 10 days ago, the Liberty was favored by 9.5 at home.

For a quick thought exercise, pretend that game was more recent. A spread of 9.5 in New York would presumably equal something around -4.5 in Atlanta, with the Liberty still favored. Perhaps that would be as high -5.5, but still lower than tonight’s -7.5.

Where is that gap? Excellent question. The Dream have played quite well of late, winning at New York, at Connecticut and at Indiana before crumbling to close the road trip at Dallas. The Liberty, meanwhile, have played just one game since then. Beating up on the Mercury should not have influenced New York’s power rating.

Thus, this line feels inflated. There is value in Atlanta at +7.5 and probably on down toward +6.

The total has jumped to now sit at 170.5 after opening at 165.5. That may reflect optimism Liberty guard Sabrina Ionescu will be full-go after missing the last two games with a hamstring injury. She is no longer included in the injury report, but the obvious worry would simply be her workload.

The more subtle worry would be that she struggled before a two-game flash prior to finding the sidelines. Ionescu didn’t reach double digits in three of her first six games this season, taking only eight field-goal attempts per game in those three contests. If she is again a tad less than aggressive, then that boosted total may be too high.

Liberty vs Dream betting trend to know

New York is 1-3 ATS in its four road games this season, all four instances being as favorites. Find more WNBA betting trends for Liberty vs. Dream.

Liberty vs Dream game info

Liberty vs Dream key injuries

Liberty: Sabrina Ionescu G (Questionable)
Dream: Aari McDonald G (Out), Iliana Rupert C (Out)
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

Pages related to this topic