New York Liberty vs Minnesota Lynx Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Liberty Set the Tone Early

They can’t keep getting away with this, can they? The Minnesota Lynx have covered four straight spreads, including winning twice as double-digit underdogs while being without the services of their best player.

Beating the New York Liberty and then the Connecticut Sun sans Napheesa Collier defies explanation, and it is hard to imagine the Lynx getting by the Liberty again tonight, even if that spread is down three points with Minnesota now hosting.

Here are our free WNBA picks and predictions for the Liberty vs the Lynx on August 4.

Liberty vs Lynx best odds

Liberty vs Lynx picks and predictions

The want here is to say Minnesota hardly covered the spread in its last game as 11.5-point underdogs at Connecticut — the Lynx hung tough through the fourth quarter to lose by only 10.

Surely that was just a bad beat. Surely Minnesota needed a few last-minute buckets to get within the number.

Nope. A Kayla McBride three-pointer with 3:10 left got the Lynx within 10 points and they would never be outside the spread again.

But let’s keep assuming the Lynx cannot keep getting away with this. They are not this good.

Before this week of unexpected success, Minnesota was just 2-8 against the spread when facing teams currently in the top half of the league, including 0-6 in its last six games. Remove a 40-point blowout loss to the Dallas Wings from the math and the Lynx lost those five games by an average of 10.7 points more than bookmakers expected.

Meanwhile, the Liberty have won eight of their last 12 first halves. In those first-half victories, New York won by an average of 11.1 points. Its roster is fully capable of running up the score early, and that recent loss to Minnesota should force the Liberty to open tonight with the proper respect.

My best bet: Liberty first half -6.5 (-106 at FanDuel)

Liberty vs Lynx spread and Over/Under analysis

This full-game spread opened at 10.5 early on Friday morning before spending some of the coffee hour with the Liberty favored by -11 or -11.5 before falling back to -10.5 by lunchtime.

A week ago, New York was a 13.5-point home favorite against Minnesota, and if giving some credence to last week’s power rankings, this spread falling around -9 or -10 would have made sense. In that regard, -10.5 might feel a touch high.

Collier was upgraded on Thursday to “Doubtful” from “Out” with her ankle sprain, but there is very little expectation that “Doubtful” turns into action tonight. Lynx forward Dorka Juhasz was added to the injury report on Thursday with a hamstring worry, listed as “Questionable,” and her possible absence may explain the inflated spread.

The rookie has averaged 9.7 points and 9 rebounds in the three games without Collier. Losing Juhasz would leave McBride all but on her own tonight.

The total ticked up to 168.5 after opening at 167.5, and both these teams prefer to play toward the Over. In particular, the Liberty have hit the Over in 16 of their 26 games this year, including six of their last nine. Minnesota’s upset of New York last week cleared its Over by four points.

Liberty vs Lynx betting trend to know

The Over is 4-1 in Minnesota’s last five games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Liberty vs. Lynx.

Liberty vs Lynx game info

Liberty vs Lynx key injuries

Liberty: Stefanie Dolson C (Out), Han Xu C (Out).
Lynx: Dorka Juhasz F (Questionable), Napheesa Collier F (Doubtful), Rachel Banham G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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