Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Navigating a Huge Spread

The league’s best vs the league’s worst. The Las Vegas Aces have not lost at home, while the Phoenix Mercury have managed just one win on the road. An outright upset tonight would be the most shocking result of the WNBA season. With the WNBA odds spread favoring Las Vegas by 17.5 points, is a close game even remotely feasible?

Here are our free WNBA picks and predictions for the Mercury vs the Aces on July 11, with tip set for 10:00 p.m. ET.

Mercury vs Aces best odds

Mercury vs Aces picks and predictions

Sometimes even the defending champions need a wake-up call, and the Wings gave one to the Aces last week. Handing Las Vegas its first loss in a month was no small feat, but the wake-up call was really how tough Dallas played in both games of a back-to-back, losing by just seven points in the first game. Do not ascribe that to a backdoor cover: It was a one-bucket game with five minutes to go.

The Wings did not shoot well in either game, going 9 of 38 combined from deep. If that 23.7 percent wasn’t bad enough, Dallas also shot just 43.3 percent from the field in the two-game series.

How, then, did the Wings play the Aces close in Game 1 and win Game 2? In the first, they protected the ball, giving up just eight turnovers, while forcing 13 mistakes by Las Vegas. In the second, Dallas won the rebounding battle 36 to 25.

More than most items in a box score, those are both want-to aspects. Hustle, effort, however you want to phrase it. The Aces simply did not go all-out, and it cost them.

That has not been the case most of the year. Up until those two games, Las Vegas had the fewest turnovers in the league per 100 possessions while Dallas ranked No. 8.

Per 100 possessions, the Aces were outrebounding their opponents by 2.9 boards. The Wings are the best rebounding team in the WNBA, but dominating the glass by 11 in a game with only about 82 possessions was extreme.

Las Vegas did not show up with the intensity needed.

It then responded with a 24-point win at Minnesota in which the Aces turned over the ball just 11 times while forcing 13 mistakes. Las Vegas won the rebounding battle 34 to 26.

That’s more like it.

And that’s what should continue tonight.

Phoenix grabs the fewest rebounds in the league while giving up the fifth-most. The Mercury turn over the ball more than any other team while ranking in the bottom half of the WNBA in turnovers forced. The measurable spots of effort that plagued the Aces last week have been the Mercury’s downfall all season.

But a 17.5-point spread is lofty. And those moments of renewed intensity should be most noticeable while the game is still somewhat close. Thus, backing Las Vegas in the first half is a justifiable approach, trusting the Aces to pour it on early in night one of a back-to-back.

My best bet: Aces first half -9.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

Mercury vs Aces spread and Over/Under analysis

This lofty spread has hardly moved, opening at -17.0 on Monday evening and ticking up to -17.5 before the end of the night. If worried that number is simply too hefty, then let’s point out that Phoenix has been an underdog of at least 15 points three times this year, including once against Las Vegas. The Mercury are 1-2 against the spread in those three games, including losing by 20 points when 19-point home underdogs to the Aces.

Las Vegas, meanwhile, has been favored by at least 15 points nine times this year, going 5-4 ATS. Two of those ATS losses came in back-to-back games against the Fever, right about at Indiana’s peak this season before a recent down swell. Before that, the Aces had covered three straight with spreads of -18, -17, and that -19 at Phoenix.

This total has not genuinely moved, some books opening at 169.0 before settling at 169.5.

In Las Vegas games with spreads of at least 15 points, the Under has cashed in six of the nine. Blowouts tend to create that effect, and with both these teams nearing the All-Star Break, that effect could be emphasized. The Aces do play tomorrow, but the Mercury might pack up as soon as the going gets tough to hurry to a week off.

Mercury vs Aces betting trend to know

The Mercury have fallen to their 4-14 record without even facing most of the WNBA’s best. Phoenix has played only seven games against the league’s top half, going 2-5 ATS. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mercury vs. Aces.

Mercury vs Aces game info

Mercury vs Aces key injuries

Mercury: Skylar Diggins-Smith G (Out).
Aces: Candace Parker F (Questionable), Riquna Williams G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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