Best WNBA Player Props Today: Jones Lights Up Connecticut

Prop bet #1: Diana dials it up

With all due respect to one of the greatest of all time, the rare player truly deserving of GOAT references, Diana Taurasi is no longer a consistent offensive threat. In her last 11 games, she has cleared this 3-pointers prop only three times, shooting just 23-for-76 (30.3%) from beyond the arc in that stretch.

But focus on how often she is shooting. Even while relatively struggling, Taurasi has taken 6.9 threes per game. And she should take even more than that against the Washington Mystics, given no one has given up more 3-point looks per game than Washington has in the last month, opponents taking 25.8 shots from deep each night.

No one on the Phoenix Mercury takes more threes per night than Taurasi, so logically she will best benefit from the Mystics’ frequent failures on the perimeter.

This 11:30 a.m. ET tip should work against Washington’s already-undisciplined defense, while a 20-year-veteran like Taurasi should be above such a lapse in focus.

Diana Taurasi prop: Over 2.5 made threes (+150 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Jewell Loyd from deep

The Los Angeles Sparks give up the highest 3-point shooting percentage in the league, 37.2%. Frame that sentence in the last month and it can be both more charitable to Los Angeles and more condemning. In that time, the Sparks gave up only the second-highest 3-point shooting percentage in the league (more charitable), a whopping 40.0% (more condemning).

That is the salve Jewell Loyd desperately needs, having gone 0-for-8 from deep in her last two games and just 3-for-24 in her last five. But much like Taurasi, focus on how often Loyd is shooting. Even while outright struggling, Loyd has taken 4.8 threes per game. For the sake of a practical conversation, let’s assume she takes five against Los Angeles today. Shoot at the rate the Sparks usually allow and Loyd will cash this prop.

Loyd shooting five times from deep would hardly be a surprise, given she shot six or more in five straight games from June 27 to July 7 and has averaged 5.3 tries from three this season.

Jewell Loyd prop: Over 1.5 made threes (-115 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: No Stewie, more Jones

New York Liberty superstar Breanna Stewart is not officially listed as out for this meeting atop the WNBA standings, but her “questionable” designation may as well be definitive. While most of the WNBA will get the next month off, Stewart will be at the helm of the U.S. through the Olympics. Getting rest tonight makes sense.

In her absence, two of New York’s other superstars should be assumed to step up. Either Sabrina Ionescu or Jonquel Jones should enjoy more looks. Or, quite possibly, both.

Many might lump Stewart in more with Ionescu than Jones, but the reality is Stewart and Jones produce in more similar ways than Stewart and Ionescu do. For example, the majority of Ionescu’s field-goal attempts are from deep while less than 29% of Stewart’s are.

Both Stewart and Jones live on the boards, each grabbing more than 15% of available rebounds. Stewart chases down more than 5% of available offensive rebounds, trailing Jones’s 6.3%. If another one or two of those bounce to Jones tonight, that could be enough to propel her past a points prop that she has already cleared in seven of her last 13 games.

Jonquel Jones prop: Over 16.5 points (-104 at FanDuel)