Best WNBA Player Props Today: Wilson Puts Fever Through Hell

Prop bet #1: Wilson Over 27.5 

A’ja Wilson is coming off by far the worst game she’s played this season, an 11-point dud against the Washington Mystics on Saturday. The great ones always bounce back, and A’ja is perhaps the greatest we’ve ever seen.

She’s going up against a favorable matchup to do so as well, as the Las Vegas Aces take on the W’s worst defensive team, the Indiana Fever. A’ja will also have multiple factors to motivate her outside the usual.

For one, she’s going against fellow South Carolina Gamecock Aliyah Boston. Friendly rivalry between the two is to be expected, and Wilson will want to come out ahead of the young phenom.

This game will also have a big spotlight on it because it’s the WNBA’s best player (A’ja) against Caitlin Clark, a rising star and unrivaled media phenomenon. I wouldn’t presume to know if that matters to A’ja or not, but she has the chance to put the MVP race in a chokehold with a stellar performance in front of one of the biggest TV audiences she’ll play in front of this season.

The statistical argument alone is enough to like these A’ja Wilson odds, though. The Fever allows 36.4 points in the paint, fourth most of the W, and at 12.6, they allow the most second-chance points as well. 

Chelsea Gray is rounding into form which makes Wilson’s life easier. A’ja has flashed a more aggressive off-the-dribble offensive game, and that element makes an MVP-level scorer just that much better.

If the Aces are blowing out the Fever, it might cost Wilson the final two or three minutes of action. But if they’re in such a commanding lead at that point in the fourth, it’s almost certainly because A’ja herself has dominated to that point.

A'ja Wilson prop: Over 27.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Jones Under 14.5 points

Jonquel Jones is one of the most efficient players in the W, and while she’s not a traditional big, she still isn’t an on-ball player.

Jones has a solid enough handle to attack a close out, and she can mash an opponent into the rim with the best of them. But she’s not creating offense off the dribble from the perimeter on her own, she’s dependent on good spacing and the passing of her teammates to put her in a position to succeed. 

That’s why this year’s Minnesota Lynx can be such a pain to play for a player like her. 

Newcomer Allana Smith has been a big part of that shift for this year’s Lynx team. She’s a pest on the defensive end, and she makes opposing centers fight for every square inch of spot on the court, denies them the ball, and just gets in the way of what they want to do.

Minnesota gums up the works on everything. It makes teams rotate through their second, third, and fourth options on defense like every matchup is a pivotal playoff game. The Liberty tend to lean more on Sabrina Ionescu and Breanna Stewart to create for themselves in those tough spots rather than trusting the pass deep into the clock to find Jonquel a good look. 

The key to stopping Jones is limiting her shot attempts and time on the ball, and the Lynx have shown an ability to do that this year. In their one prior matchup this season, Jones had just four points on 1-for-5 shooting.

These Jonquel Jones odds have already been brought down some in anticipation of this matchup, but not far enough to my mind.

Jonquel Jones prop: Under 14.5 points (+100 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Hamby Over 17.5 points

Dearica Hamby continues to impress during what has become a career year for her on the Los Angeles Sparks. She came out of the gates on fire for L.A., but after a few down games, it looked like it might have just been early-season alchemy.

But she’s coming off arguably her best performance yet, a 29-point game against Brittney Griner and the Phoenix Mercury. She went 11-for-17 from the field and 4 of 5 from three.

The evolution of Hamby’s game has been fascinating to watch. At 6-foot-3, she’s often guarded by the opposing center, but her playstyle has much more in common with the likes of Chennedy Carter than it does with Brionna Jones.

She’s a player who wants to attack you in transition before you can set up, running the ball make-or-miss to create an advantage out of pure pace.

Hamby's also a developing outside shooter. She’s up to 45% from three on the season, and she mixes it in when she’s defended by a strong rim protector (or one whose closeouts are particularly lumbering).

The Sparks haven’t won a lot this year, but this game against the Washington Mystics should at least be competitive. I like her chances of making these Dearica Hamby odds look much too low, as she has so often this season.

Dearica Hamby prop: Over 17.5 points (-114 at FanDuel)