Best WNBA Player Props Today: Ogunbowale Takes Aim...Repeatedly

Prop bet #1: Lynx limit Gray

While Rhyne Howard continues to navigate an ankle injury, the Atlanta Dream backcourt is effectively only Allisha Gray. No one else on the roster makes even one 3-pointer per game. 

That has allowed defenses to focus on Gray, much to her detriment.

Before Howard’s injury, Gray was averaging 2.1 made 3-pointers per game on 40.3% shooting. Since Howard’s injury, Gray is down to 1.3 on 29.5% shooting.

Somehow, life should be more difficult today against the Minnesota Lynx.

Since Napheesa Collier was sidelined by plantar fasciitis, Minnesota has held opponents to 26.2% from deep in four games. That sample size may spark some concern, but it fits in line with the Lynx defense all season. In the last month, foes have shot just 28.0% from beyond the arc.

When she enjoys room to operate, Gray is one of the WNBA’s better shooters. She does not have that room these days due to Howard’s injury, and now she will face the best defense in the league, which will only further limit her looks from long-range.

Allisha Gray prop: Under 1.5 threes (+100 at BetRivers)

Prop bet #2: Arike at it from range

Arike Ogunbowale is putting together one of the most inefficient scoring seasons in WNBA history. As Matthew Coller laid out for Her Hoop Stats this week, of the 168 players who have taken at least 450 shots in a season in WNBA history, Ogunbowale ranks No. 158 in effective field goal percentage. Of the 36 players taking at least 10 shots per game this season, Ogunbowale ranks No. 33.

Those rankings would be worse if she was not a worthwhile 3-point shooter. Ogunbowale has hit 33.8% of her threes this season on 8.9 attempts per game.

Yes, she shoots a lot. She has to.

The Dallas Wings have no other offense. So even when Ogunbowale is struggling — just 23.3% from deep in her last four games — she has to keep shooting, taking 7.5 heaves from beyond the arc per game in this ugly stretch.

Enter the Indiana Fever. Their defense has improved of late, but the Fever have still allowed more looks from deep than anyone else in the WNBA across the last month, 26.9 compared to 25.7 from the Mercury at the second-highest rate.

Ogunbowale should make the most of those looks. Well, if not the most, she will still make enough to clear this prop, largely because Indiana will allow her that space.

Arike Ogunbowale prop: Over 2.5 threes (-159 at BetRivers)

Prop bet #3: Clark’s Continued Charity

Caitlin Clark suffered, compared to her recent showings, against the Lynx on Sunday, scoring only 17 points and dishing out just six assists. Then again, the Fever won by seven despite being 4.5-point underdogs.

Those numbers were sluggish compared to Clark’s last few weeks. Most notably, she had cleared double digits in assists in six of her last seven games, averaging 11.7 assists in that stretch.

Struggling to match that pace against the best defense in the WNBA was not too shocking. It should be far easier against the worst defense in the WNBA.

For that matter, the Wings’ defense in the last month has been six points worse in defensive rating than the second-worst number in the league and more than 20 points worse than Minnesota’s.

Clark should fill her stat line tonight, and in recent weeks, that has most shown up in her assists.

Caitlin Clark prop: Over 9.5 assists (-130 at DraftKings)