One of the hardest things to do in sports is to beat an opponent twice in a row. Through an odd scheduling decision, the Minnesota Lynx have a chance to do that to the Seattle Storm for a second time this season, as the two teams are coming off an 8-point Lynx victory in Seattle just on Friday. Both sides had to fly to Minnesota for this final matchup of the season, with WNBA odds labeling Minnesota as a 5.5-point favorite.
Here are my free WNBA picks and predictions for the Storm vs the Lynx on August 20.
Storm vs Lynx best odds
Storm vs Lynx picks and predictions
I'm not even going to try to understand the WNBA decisions that led to the Seattle Storm and the Minnesota Lynx playing not one, but two home-and-home series this season across three days each. At the end of June, Minnesota won at home — a four-point favorite prevailing by 11 points — before pulling off an overtime victory in Seattle just two days later... then a three-point underdog winning by two points.
Now they’ve reversed the flight patterns. The Lynx won at the Storm on Friday, again covering the spread. Two days later, here we are.
The focus now should be wondering if the Lynx can cover a fourth spread against the Storm this season. Even with Seattle scuffling along, just 1.5 games ahead of last in the league, it has beaten the spread at least once against every team it has played this year except Minnesota. For that matter, the Storm have won outright at least once against everyone in the league except the three best teams, the Washington Mystics, and the Lynx.
Grant the Mystics health this year and they could be in the Top 4, but Minnesota? Well, maybe we continue to undervalue the Lynx. They did start the year 0-4 ATS and 0-6 outright, losing those six games by a combined 57 points. Across the entire season, Minnesota’s net rating is -6.0 — but remove those first six games and it rises to -4.8.
Narrow it further to the Lynx’s last 10 games, and that net rating rises to -2.8. Still not stellar, it actually trails Seattle’s -1.7 in that stretch. Minnesota went just 6-4 SU in those 10 games and 6-3-1 ATS. It is not a hand-picked selection to better a handicap. In fact, Storm thoughts are starting to gather.
But this game is in Minneapolis. That should sway the thinking, right? Well, the Lynx are 6-9 at home this year compared to 9-7 on the road. They have not been home much in the last month, but in those four games, they went 1-2-1 ATS.
I'm not undervaluing Minnesota. It has not demanded respect, and even in recent weeks, it has been nothing but average. Given the 3-0 record against Seattle this year, it may be time to bet on a letdown. The thinking is that simple.
Beating a team twice in a row is difficult enough. Beating a team twice in a row twice in a season is a stretch too far for a team as middling as the Lynx.
My best bet: Storm moneyline (+198 at FanDuel)
Not intended for use in MA.
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Storm vs Lynx spread and Over/Under analysis
Minnesota opened as a 4.5-point favorite late on Saturday, and by Sunday morning, the entire board posted -5.5. Look carefully and at the right moment and a stray -6 may be available.
Seattle has been competitive of late, going 6-4 ATS in the last month with the four ATS losses all coming... at home. Hmmmm.
The total moved as well, opening at 161.5 and falling to 159.5 by late Sunday morning. Credit the Storm for that. While going 2-2 both outright and ATS in the last four games, Seattle has gone Under its pregame totals by an average of 15.6 points. Eight of its last nine games have fallen short of their totals.
Should betting the Under have been today’s best bet? Perhaps, but two of the three games in this season series have approached 200 points, and that is enough reason to be wary of Seattle’s recent numbers.
Storm vs Lynx betting trend to know
Seattle is 5-0 ATS in its last five road games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Storm vs. Lynx.
Storm vs Lynx game info
| Location: | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Sunday, August 20, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBA TV |
Storm vs Lynx key injuries
Storm: Gabby Williams F (Out).
Lynx: Lindsay Allen G (Out), Natalie Achonwa F (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
