The World Series heads back to Houston for Game 6 on Tuesday night, with the Astros leading the Nationals three games to two.
This is a rematch of the pitching duel from Game 2 with Stephen Strasburg again facing off against eight-time All-Star Justin Verlander. We break down the odds with our best bets and predictions for what could be the final game of the 2019 MLB World Series. **video
WASHINGTON NATIONALS AT HOUSTON ASTROS (-180, 7.5 @ BETAMERICA)
QUICK HITTER
Despite expectations of a low-scoring contest in Game 2, both Strasburg and Verlander got off to shaky starts with each giving up a pair of runs in the first inning.
Houston has terrific depth with big hitters throughout their lineup, while Washington tends to be a bit more top-heavy with the batters at the top of their order (Trea Turner, Adam Eaton, Anthony Rendon and Juan Soto) much better than their bats at the bottom.
In the regular season the Nationals had a batting average of .300 with a .499 slugging percentage during the first inning. They might not get two runs against Verlander in the opening inning again but they seem like a good bet to get at least a hit.
PICK: Top 1st inning hit - Yes (-120)
FIRST FIVE INNINGS
Strasburg had an excellent regular season going 18-6 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. He's been even more effective in the postseason going 4-0 in five outings with a 1.93 ERA and 0.96 WHIP.
Verlander has struggled in the postseason going 1-3 in five starts with a 4.15 ERA but there's a reason he's likely head to the Hall of Fame after his career ends. He had a terrific regular season going 21-6 with a 2.58 ERA, a 0.80 WHIP and a batting average allowed of .172.
Even though Verlander and Strasburg allowed a total of four runs in the first inning last week, they settled down immediately after that with neither pitcher giving up a single run over the next five innings. Back the Under on the first five innings total.
PICK: First Five Innings Under 4
TEAM/PLAYER PROP
Although Verlander hasn't always been at his best this postseason the O/U of 7.5 on his strikeout total still seems too low. In the regular season he fanned 300 batters in 223 innings for an average of 11.9 strikeouts per nine innings. He also struck out at least 10 batters in 10 of his last 14 starts to close out the season.
Even in the postseason Verlander has thrown at least eight strikeouts in three of his five starts. With Washington batters striking out an average of 9.53 times per game in the playoffs, take the Over here.
PICK: Justin Verlander Over 7.5 strikeouts (+100)
FULL GAME TOTAL
We're leaning towards the Under on the first five innings, but what about the full game total? While the Nationals' bullpen has been their biggest weakness for much of the year, the in-season addition of Daniel Hudson has helped shore up that area. And with Strasburg coming off five days of rest he can throw deep into the game if effective, after all he has pitched at least seven innings in 12 of his last 28 starts.
When it comes to the Astros relievers, they have one of the best bullpens in the majors, recording a 3.75 ERA during the regular season and a 3.91 ERA in the postseason.
As for the batters on both sides, scoring has not come as easy for these squads during the playoffs as it did during the regular season. In the postseason Washington is batting .239 and plating 4.33 runs per game, while Houston has a .235 BAA and is scoring 4.19 runs/game.
With the total set at a reasonable 7.5 we like the Under.
PICK: Under 7.5
FULL GAME SIDE
Interestingly enough, the road team has won every game of this series and the visiting Nationals will be extremely motivated to win this one and push this series to a deciding seventh game.
While Verlander is terrific on the mound, he has struggled in the postseason, with poor performances against the Rays, Yankees and Nationals. While we expect him to bounce back in this one he doesn't seem to have an edge on Strasburg when it comes to current form which makes us a bit wary of backing the 'Stros at -180.
As you can tell with our total bet, we're expecting this to be a low-scoring battle and when it comes to low-scoring contests the underdog usually has a decent chance of pulling off the victory. With Washington 7-0 in Strasburg's last seven outings we like their value at +155.
PICK: Moneyline Washington +155
