Stephen Fulton and Naoya Inoue’s featherweight bout is one of the featured boxing betting events scheduled for July 25 from the Ariake Arena in Tokyo, Japan.
Inoue will look to capture the title in a fourth weight class, and the undefeated Fulton is looking to add to his own legacy by defeating the modern marvel in hostile territory.
Oddsmakers heavily favor Inoue to wrestle the title from Fulton as a -370 favorite with the champ Fulton returning as a +275 underdog. Check out my betting picks for Inoue vs. Fulton before their historic clash this Tuesday, July 25.
Stephen Fulton vs Naoya Inoue odds
| Method of victory | Stephen Fulton | Naoya Inoue |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | +275 | -370 |
| Win by KO/TKO | +2,800 | +350 |
| Win by decision | +400 | +225 |
| Draw | +1,600 | +1,600 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of July 23, 2023.
Stephen Fulton vs Naoya Inoue betting predictions
Picks made on July 25. Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Best boxing bonuses
Looking to bet on boxing? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users at FanDuel can bet $5 and get $150 in bonus bets (win or lose)! Sign Up Now
B) New users at DraftKings can bet $5 and get $150 in bonus bets! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Stephen Fulton vs Naoya Inoue betting preview
Naoya Inoue is an undefeated, three-division champion who is already a lock for the Hall of Fame. The 30-year-old Inoue is one of boxing’s most ferocious punchers, and he recently put his power to good use by knocking out Paul Butler in 11 rounds to become the undisputed 118-lb champion last December.
“The Monster” has effortlessly pounded his way through three divisions, stalking opponents and flattening them with blunt force trauma. Despite his reputation, Inoue is far from a clubber. He intelligently sets up his big shots, doesn’t ignore body punches, and has shown his defensive abilities against the few opponents he’s faced that could fight back.
Stephen Fulton defended his WBC and WBO titles in a dominant performance against Daniel Roman in June 2022. The underdog champion will be leaving the United States for the first time to face Inoue in front of a hostile home crowd in Japan.
Fulton is in his prime, has shown prodigious boxing IQ, and brings something different to the ring each time. Though Fulton doesn’t possess knockout power, he has excellent conditioning, speed, and agility that make him a difficult fighter to prepare for.
Stephen Fulton vs Naoya Inoue boxing prediction and best bet
Prediction: Fulton ML (+275)
Inoue’s power and incredible performances have rightfully made him a favorite, but he’s competing in his fourth weight class against an opponent in his prime. While Inoue will still have a power advantage, it may not be as pronounced against the larger, taller, and faster Fulton.
This isn’t going to be a slugfest. The slow pace may not work too well in Inoue’s favor as he’s notably conservative with his output, and Fulton throws upwards of 80 punches per round.
It isn’t outside the realm of possibility that Inoue could catch Fulton with something wicked and put the fight in the bag. However — similar to Saul Alvarez vs. Dmitry Bivol — the perceivably bigger puncher with a low output is going to have a hard time going off on a slickster.
Fulton may end up dictating the pace of the fight. There might be some tough moments, and it could be a virtual toss-up until the final rounds, but I’m siding with Fulton’s technique and size to hand Inoue his first loss.
Prediction: Fulton moneyline (+275 at DraftKings)
Best Bet: Fulton by decision (+400)
Inoue’s average fight time is 5.75 rounds, so he’s used to getting opponents out early. Fulton is a fighter designed to go the distance and has shown excellent conditioning and durability even when actively engaging.
Because Inoue’s power carries late, Fulton has to balance a fine line of engagement and evasion for 12 rounds. It’s a gargantuan task for a fighter to be on point from beginning to end, but Fulton has the tools to outwork Inoue on the outside and nullify his offense with strategic clinches and body punches. He’ll have to outbox him because he doesn’t have the punching power to knock Inoue out, as opting to trade with Inoue is an easy way to book a night at the nearest hospital.
While there’s no doubt that Inoue is in a league of his own, this might be the one mountain that’s too tall for him to climb. I’m going with Fulton to outwork Inoue in the early rounds and hanging on late to score an upset decision in Tokyo.
Prediction: Fulto to win by decision (+400 at DraftKings)
