Canelo Alvarez vs. Edgar Berlanga is a super middleweight title fight taking place on September 14.
Alvarez returns with aims to take out his second straight undefeated contender while the vicious Berlanga looks to upset and ascend to boxing stardom.
Boxing odds have Alvarez a commanding favorite at -1,800, and Berlanga is a +1,000 underdog. My Alvarez vs. Berlanga predictions expect the challenger to see stars on Saturday.
Alvarez vs Berlanga prediction and pick
- My fight prediction
Alvarez ML (-1,800 at DraftKings) - My best bet
Alvarez to win by KO/TKO/DQ (-290 at DraftKings)
Fight analysis
Once upon a time, Berlanga was hyped as a knockout machine, running through 16 opponents in less than a round. This earned the Puerto Rican brawler a valuable gimmick that positioned him as a breakout star.
However, when Berlanga inevitably faced better opposition — and I’m using that term loosely — it became apparent he had a low talent ceiling and was primed for an upset if his competition level continued to rise. Both Alvarez and Berlanga are striking while the iron is hot, using the weekend’s festivities and the Mexico vs. Puerto Rico rivalry to will this fight into existence.
Alvarez has put together strong technical performances in his last two fights. Last May, Alvarez dropped the undefeated Jaime Munguia and outclassed him so severely the gutsy Munguia opted to hold back his offense in fear of Alvarez’s counters and body punches.
Though similar in style, Munguia is at least a tier above Berlanga in terms of skill and accomplishments. Munguia has faced decent opponents and former champions, as well as being a former titleholder. In contrast, Berlanga is still fighting at the appropriate level of opponents at this stage of his 22-fight career.
What Berlanga will bring to the table are his wild, clubbing shots, and he will no doubt bring the fight to Alvarez. Alvarez isn’t unbeatable, but he needs to be thrown off his rhythm and backed up with a judicious jab while being muscled along the ropes or in clinches.
Berlanga’s likely seek-and-destroy style will allow for fireworks and also give Alvarez plenty of chances to land his tight counters underneath Berlanga’s wide swings. Part of me felt that Alvarez was carrying Munguia past the finish line in their fight, and that same part tells me that he won’t offer Berlanga the same courtesy.
The gap in talent is too wide here. I’m picking Alvarez to win after delivering another commanding performance.
Best best analysis
Berlanga is coming off a KO win over Padraig McCrory, which was his first stoppage in five fights. It hasn’t been for lack of trying, as Berlanga is a headhunter and doesn’t do much to disguise his offense. He comes straight at you, intent on taking you down and out. That will make him an easy read for Canelo, who will likely put on a counter-punching clinic.
As Berlanga continues to give Alvarez opportunities to land those shots, they'll connect with increasing frequency and ferocity. The crude Berlanga will quickly realize how out of his depth he is, but stylistically, he won’t be able to adjust, ultimately succumbing to Canelo’s precision. My best bet is Alvarez winning by stoppage.
Canelo Alvarez vs Edgar Berlanga odds
| Method of victory | Canelo Alvarez | Edgar Berlanga |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | -1,600 | +1,000 |
| Win by KO/TKO | +200 | +5,000 |
| Win by points or decision | +260 | +1,800 |
| Draw | +1,800 | +1,800 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 9-14.
Canelo Alvarez vs Edgar Berlanga tale of the tape
| Alvarez | Berlanga | |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Age | 27 |
| 5-foot-7 | Height | 6-foot-1 |
| 168 lbs | Weight | 168 lbs |
| 70.5 inches | Reach | 73 inches |
| 61-2-2 (39 KO | Record | 22-0 (17 KO) |
Not intended for use in MA.
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