Oleksandr Usyk vs. Tyson Fury is our final premier boxing event of 2024, and these two are fighting for their professional legacies as well as the heavyweight title.
Usyk narrowly outlasted Fury in a vicious battle last May, and all signs point to another tightly contested battle between the best heavyweights of this generation.
Boxing odds have Usyk as a -150 favorite, and Fury is a +120 underdog. Here are my best free Usyk vs. Fury predictions from the Kingdom Arena in Riyadh on Saturday, December 21.
Usyk vs Fury prediction and pick
- My fight prediction
Usyk moneyline (-150 at DraftKings) - My best bet
Fight will go the distance (-165 at DraftKings)
Fight analysis
The first fight between Oleksandr Usyk and Tyson Fury was a close bout ultimately decided by a brutal ninth round, where Usyk damaged and dropped Fury to secure a split-decision win. Watching the fight back, that critical round was what prevented the contest from being scored a draw. As we approach the rematch, it feels like these two elite heavyweights are destined for another close fight.
Usyk has proven himself as a fighter for the ages. Not only is he one of the greatest cruiserweights of all time, but he is now one win away from being rightfully considered the best heavyweight since Lennox Lewis.
In the first fight, Usyk used his superior speed and accuracy to rough Fury up, staying in the pocket to land the big shots that ultimately secured his victory. While he took his share of punishment in the middle rounds, Usyk started and finished the fight stronger. He doesn’t need to significantly adjust his strategy, aside from doing a better job defending against Fury's body shots.
Fury, on the other hand, took too long to get started, essentially giving away the first three rounds as he let Usyk back him up and control the pace. He did manage to change momentum in the fourth round, but he also spent too much time clowning in the ring in a failed attempt to get into Usyk’s head.
The Gypsy King landed some of his best punches, including wicked uppercuts, but couldn’t slow Usyk down or keep him at bay. By the end of the fight, Fury was being walked down again, and the damage from that ninth round prevented him from mounting a meaningful offensive surge late in the bout.
When there’s a rematch of a very close first fight, the edge often goes to the loser, as they’re perceived to have more room for adjustments. Fury could look to start faster, mug Usyk early, and try to replicate the success he had in the middle rounds. However, Usyk’s ring IQ and heavyweight mettle have already been tested as he's absorbed the same shots that destroyed Deontay Wilder and Dillian Whyte and still put the heat on Fury.
It’s difficult to confidently pick either fighter, as there are clear paths to victory for both. If I have to choose, I’ll cautiously pick Usyk to win again.
Best best analysis
I don’t believe that Usyk will pursue a knockout at any point even if he hurts Fury again. In the first fight, Usyk smartly backed off Fury in the final three rounds to avoid walking into a huge counterpunch that could have cost him the fight. This rematch is likely to be another high-class, 50/50 heavyweight battle. My best bet is that the fight goes the distance.
Oleksandr Usyk vs Tyson Fury odds
| Method of victory | Oleksandr Usyk | Tyson Fury |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | -150 | +120 |
| Win by KO/TKO | +300 | +300 |
| Win by decision or technical decision | +170 | +350 |
| Draw | +1400 | +1400 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 12-18.
Oleksandr Usyk vs Tyson Fury tale of the tape
| Usyk | Fury | |
|---|---|---|
| 37 | Age | 36 |
| 6-foot-3 | Height | 6-foot-9 |
| 220 lbs | Weight | 262 lbs |
| 78 inches | Reach | 85 inches |
| 22-0 (14 KO) | Record | 34-1-1 (24 KO) |
Not intended for use in MA.
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