Katie Taylor vs. Karen Elizabeth Carabajal is scheduled for 10 rounds in the lightweight division for the undisputed title this weekend at the OVO Arena in London. Taylor is coming off her epic war with Amanda Serrano and hopes to make a hometown splash at the expense of the unbeaten and unproven Carabajal.
The champ is a massive betting favorite at -6,000 to retain her titles. Carabajal will be fighting for the first time outside of her native Argentina and comes in as a +1,200 underdog.
Keep reading our Taylor vs. Carabajal betting picks and predictions.
Katie Taylor vs Karen Elizabeth Carabajal odds
| Method of victory | Katie Taylor | Karen Elizabeth Carabajal |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | -6,000 | +1,200 |
| Win by KO/TKO | +225 | +2,000 |
| Win by points or decision | -300 | +2,800 |
| Draw | +1,800 | +1,800 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of October 27, 2022.
Katie Taylor vs Karen Elizabeth Carabajal betting predictions
Picks made on October 25. Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Katie Taylor vs Karen Elizabeth Carabajal betting preview
Coming off her fight-of-the-year candidate with Serrano, it isn't surprising that Taylor is taking an easier bout. She was in a brutal war that she might have to do again in 2023. Still, Carabajal has the tall order of unseating one of the pound-for-pound best female fighters in the sport.
Taylor uses her fast hands and excellent footwork to score and keep her foes off balance but has shown that she can bite down and brawl if she must. She showed a lot of toughness absorbing Serrano's heavy blows and used the early lead she built to come out on top when the cards were read.
While there is a sizeable gap between the talent level in women's boxing, it isn't an understatement to say Carabajal is way out of her depth here. She has never fought outside Argentina and her level of opposition is weak even by regional standards. She can only fight the people put in front of her and to her credit, she remains undefeated, finding herself 10 rounds away from an unlikely title reign.
There isn't a lot here that we know about Carabajal, but with less punching power than Taylor, she has to outslick her. Even if Taylor is still reeling from the aftereffects of her war with Serrano, it'll be shocking to see it happen. Taylor is 36 and has had a long, decorated career, so her going through her paces against an outmatched opponent isn't unexpected.
Bettors are putting Carabajal's chances in "needs a miracle" territory, but we've seen upsets with bigger odds before.
Katie Taylor vs Karen Elizabeth Carabajal boxing prediction and best bet
Prediction: Taylor moneyline
All things considered, Taylor wasn't beaten within an inch of her life that she'll be so badly diminished to lose to Carabajal. These are the kind of fights she can have for another decade and still be undefeated. There's no reason for her to go into a risky fight with the Serrano rematch on deck, either.
Taylor will have every advantage in the ring, even in power punching, though both fighters are in the single digits for stoppages. What we'll see is crisp combinations and fast hands to give the hometown crowd a show with plenty of one-way action.
There isn't any doubt Taylor should win. At -6,000 though, the real challenge is finding a solid prop to add for the weekend bet slip. Picking Taylor on the moneyline is as solid of a lock as you'll find, but the value is found elsewhere.
Prediction: Katie Taylor moneyline (-6,000 at DraftKings)
Best Bet: Taylor by decision/tech decision (-300)
Taylor might be motivated to pursue a stoppage here, but she'll need the rounds to lay down that kind of heat. There are a lot of questions about Carabajal's class, but she hasn't seemed chinny or suffered any durability issues. These two are likely to engage in a touch-and-go chess match that will inevitably lead to a wipeout on the cards.
The best line we see here is Taylor winning by decision at -300, so we'd suggest running this as a parlay with the rest of the weekend's picks to add a little bit of money to your pocket.
Prediction: Katie Taylor by decision or technical decision (-300 at DraftKings)
