Week 12 in the CFL kicks off on Thursday night with the Winnipeg Blue Bombers hosting the Montreal Alouettes. This is the only game of the week featuring two winning teams and it should be a good one with both sides welcoming back their starting quarterbacks after a two-game absence.
However, bookmakers aren't expecting a close contest since CFL betting odds hit the board with the Bombers as 7-point home favorites before that spread grew to -8.5. Here are my best free CFL picks and predictions for Alouettes vs. Blue Bombers on August 24.
Alouettes vs Blue Bombers best odds
Alouettes vs Blue Bombers picks and predictions
The Montreal Alouettes are dealing with some injuries on defense, but they've had impact defenders step up in recent weeks. That has led to their stop unit ranking first in the CFL in opponent pass efficiency rating (72.6) and allowing the fewest yards per first down (5.64).
Tyrice Beverette has emerged as one of the best linebackers in the game and Kabion Ento (a longtime practice squad member of the Packers) has become a lockdown corner. They also signed 2022 West Division Most Outstanding Defensive Player Shawn Lemon right before Week 8, which has given a massive boost to their pass rush.
Montreal has been dealing with a banged-up receiver corps all year but has still had success airing it out. CFL newcomer Austin Mack leads the league with 773 receiving yards and veteran quarterback Cody Fajardo will be back under center after missing the last two games with a shoulder injury.
Fajardo is fourth in the league in average yards per pass attempt (9.3) and QB efficiency rating (96.5). It also helps that he's protected by the highest-graded line in the CFL per Pro Football Focus and that Montreal's ground game has picked up steam by averaging 129.8 rushing yards per game and 5.19 yards per carry over the last four games.
To be fair, the Winnipeg Blue Bombers were also missing their starting QB Zach Collaros for most of the last two games and the two-time MOP winner will be back on Thursday. However, it wasn't their passing game that prevented them from covering the spread two weeks ago in Edmonton when they trailed 29-17 late in the third quarter.
The Bombers mounted a fourth-quarter comeback to win that contest but looked far from dominant against the worst team in the league. They also barely held on for a 19-18 victory against a struggling Stampeders squad in the previous week.
Sure Winnipeg has looked fantastic at times this year and should be favored in this matchup — especially at home. But 8.5 points is too much to fade a Montreal squad that currently riding a four-game winning streak and has been clicking on both sides of the ball.
My best bet: Alouettes +8.5 (-110 at bet365)
Alouettes vs Blue Bombers same-game parlay
Alouettes +8.5 (-110)
Stanback o51.5 rushing yards (-114)
Collaros o265.5 passing yards (-114)
Stanback was limited to 31 yards on 10 carries against Ottawa's top-ranked run defense last week, but the Als' running back rumbled for more than 80 yards in each of the previous two weeks. The 233-pound bruiser has been one of the league's top backs since 2019 and after a slow start to this campaign, he's been showing more of a burst lately.
Since I'm expecting the Als to cover this spread, Stanback should get plenty of work against a Winnipeg defense that surrenders the second-most yards per carry (5.8) in the league.
Collaros has been the league's best QB for the last couple of years and he has more weapons at wideout than ever before. Although Collaros was limited to 177 passing yards in Montreal in Week 4 that was with ugly weather hindering the offenses of both sides.
While the Als are allowing the fewest passing yards per game (228.4) that number has been deflated by playing against some anemic aerial attacks. Collaros hasn't played since suffering an early first-quarter injury against the Elks in Week 10 but he had thrown for more than 300 yards in each of his previous three games and looked to be at full strength in practice on Monday.
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Alouettes vs Blue Bombers spread and Over/Under analysis
This line opened with the Bombers at -7 and quickly shifted to -8.5, but the total has stayed steady at 47.5.
The Alouettes are 4-0 straight up since their bye in Week 7. They are fresh off a come-from-behind win against the Redblacks on Saturday when backup QB Caleb Evans played well down the stretch to make up for brutal mistakes in the first half.
Fajardo will be back at QB this week as will Bombers' pivot Zach Collaros. The Bombers held on for a one-point win against the Stamps last week and failed to cover the spread in both games in which Collaros was sidelined (although backup Dru Brown played very well in Week 10).
Winnipeg has won four of five home games this year with all of those victories coming by double digits. The Als are also playing on just four days of rest, and teams with fewer than five days of downtime are 2-8 SU and against the spread this year.
Alouettes vs Blue Bombers trend to know
Winnipeg is 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall. Find more CFL betting trends for Alouettes vs. Blue Bombers.
Alouettes vs Blue Bombers game info
| Location: | IG Field, Winnipeg, MB |
| Date: | Thursday, August 24, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Alouettes vs Blue Bombers key injuries
Alouettes: Kaion Julien-Grant WR (Out), Greg Ellingson WR (Out), Reggie White Jr. WR (Out), Avery Williams LB (Out), Najee Murray DB (Out), Ciante Evans DB (Out).
Blue Bombers: Brandon Alexander DB (Doubtful), Malik Clements SLB (Out), Celestin Haba DE (Out), Janarion Grant WR/KR (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
Alouettes vs Blue Bombers weather
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